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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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13-1; +10.05pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Marc Warren 120 62nd
Jeung-Hun Wang 110 mc
Matthew Southgate 240 mc
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80 mc
Raphael Jacquelin 130 39th
Warren has finished 3rd and 4th in the last two years, but they have been on different courses so his current form should be more relevant this week and that suggests he should be opposed - he hasn't finished in the top-15 in any strokeplay event sicne the Scottish Open at Royal Aberdeen twelve months ago
Opposing Wang yet again - he looks threatening last week when leading after 36 holes and 2nd after 54 holes, but he continues to struggle in these bigger Tour and shot 78 on Sunday to finish 22nd
Southgate finished in 57th place when this course was last used three years ago and has yet to win on either European or the Challenge Tour, so can be easily opposed in this field
Aphibarnrat has won on Tour, but with only one top-50 finish in his last seven starts, he doesn't have the form to warrant support this week
Jacquelin led after 36 holes two weeks ago, but it showed why he hasn't won in over three years as he failed to break par in either round over thw weekend, so can be backed to similarly fail to convert this week if he does get a similar chance Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Richard Bland 32 21st
Only two shots off the pace and in 4th place, these are good odds for a player who has been insde the top-4 after both rounds, ranks inside the top-5 in greens in regulation so far this week and showed his form with six birdies on the inward nine yesterday. LAY 20pts liability Henrik Stenson 110 13th
Eddie Pepperell 15 54th
Andy Sullivan 20 6th
Russell Knox 46 10th
Padraig Harrington 21 21st
Stenson may have the highest World Ranking of anyone in this field, but it would take two flawless rounds and mistakes by the leaders to enable him to win from his current 49th place position on the leaderboard
Pepperell is much closer - he is 2nd after 36 holes - but he has been in poor form recently, missing three of his last cuts and he has played poorly tee-to-green this week with his short game saving his scorecard - he looks unlikely to convert this chance in this form
Sullivan showed better form at the Open de France after a poor season for the World #40, but I would still price him at nearer 30s given that he is back in 10th place
Knox is two shots further back in 19th and has played very poorly from tee-to-green, ranking outside the top-100 for driving distance and accuracy and 44th in greens in regulation this week, so I would have expected much bigger odds
Harrington is in 8th place, but having missed the cut in four of his last six starts and not having won in Europe since the 2008 Open Championship, I don't rate his chances of converting this opportunity Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Tyrrell Hatton 6.6 2nd
Martin Kaymer 48 13th
Danny Lee 10.5 3rd Only once has Hatton been inside the top-3 after 54 holes on the European Tour and he dropped to 13th (2016 China Open) and 7th (BMW PGA Championship) on those two occasions; given that he is also 0-for-3 on the Challenge Tour from that position, he looks an unlikely candidate to challenge Noren today
Kaymer is six shots off the lead and back in 10th place with eight other players, so he would need poor weather conditions and variable scoring to make up the gap to the top of the leaderboard and that does not appear at all likely today
Lee is only three shots off the lead, but that is held by a player who is 4-for-5 when sole leader at the start of the final round on the European Tour, so he shouldn't get any help from the leader today; given that he ranks 67th (of 75) in driving distance, 71st in driving accuracy and 29th in greens in regulation so far this week, it appears that he won't get much help from his game today either
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