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Tyrrell Hatton - Back 4 points @ 13.5 Betfair Exchange Sam Brezel - Top-10 Finish 2 points @ 5-1 (Betfred/Coral) Jordan Smith - Top-10 Finish 2 points @ 11-2 (Betfred/Coral) Chris Hanson - Top-10 Finish 2 points @ 8-1 (Betfred/Coral) Whilst I felt a tad unfortunate last week when missing out on a place payout courtesy of Dean Burmester, there is no doubt the stats plyade their part. Very few come from off the lead and so it proved, with much of the top staying the same throughout the weekend. In complete contrast however, Abu Dhabi has a history of winners that have come from outside the top few groups at halfway. Indeed, in the last five years only Jamie Donaldson was inside the last pairing, whilst Larrazabal, Stal and Fowler (winners of the last three) have not been closer than 8th at this stage. It looks ripe for a wager of some type. The issue with trying to find that illusive winner is that current leader, Martin Kaymer, was one of the more recent victors to hold on to a lead at the halfway stage being 3 clear at the cut before stretching the winning margin to 8 come the pay-stick. He says he practised more in the off-season than in recent years, whilst a more relaxed attitude without 'trying to push' also looks like aiding this three-time course winner. However, despite the encouraging stats, the German was famously usurped when carrying a six-shot lead into the 2015 running of this event and was also beaten by 6 shots having gone into the weekend in France in joint-top. He does look hard to shift but may have had the draw to work with so far this week and going out under pressure (whatever he says) and in the most windy of conditions, could tell. Certainly that level of weekend play won't get it done here against a good level of opposition. Since winning the 2014 BMW, Cabrera-Bello has lobbed away enough chances to win over the last couple of years, being 0/9 when in the final two groups at halfway. A much better catch when off the pace and a big price, you can see him stalling as others start making birdies, no doubt finishing just too late. Have who you want from the rest. They are all capable of falling over the line but surely both Henrik Stenson and Tyrrell Hatton are most convincing. Stenson had a magnificent season in 2015/16 but despite two wins, including The Open, does seem to make it hard work. A fellow golf punter mentioned he looked tired after the first day, and the player himself commented today on being 'dead.....not much energy there'. Rory McIlroy showed last week that almost injury can't stop them, but those observations are enough of a concern, especially to back a player at single figures who just likes to find one or two in front of him come Sunday night. The Englishman has always looked a player with the ability to thrive in better class, and it was just bizarre moments of on-course frustration that were holding him back. Seemingly improving over the last couple of years, that maiden victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links is surely the making of him and he finished the season in fine fashion, Finding plenty of chances, he just hasn't had enough putts dropping, but he is aggressive enough to brush that aside and with that 2nd at the seasonal finale preceded with top-10 in Dubai, we know he will relish conditions. I thought 12-1 was too big in comparison to a couple up there and that looks the trade of the week at the shorter prices. There is always temptation to get the likes of Wiesberger, An, Noren et al on side but choosing between them at the prices is difficult and there isn't enough margin there, for win purposes, given the quality they have to come through. Forecd to pick, the Swede does look ready to continue last year's resurgence. Instead I'm backing up Hatton with three top-10 wagers at what look to be inflated prices. Australian Sam Brezel was a shock winner of the Hong Kong Open, but his efforts this week suggest that was no fluke. Fairly moderate on the Asian Tour, he is putting beautifully this week and if continuing those excellent approach stats, will surely keep his position on the front page. He certainly won't mind any wind that arrives and has already beaten the likes of Cabrera-Bello and Tommy Fleetwood this season. Of course, he has to be a bigger price but I'm not sure that the difference should be so large. Jordan Smith put his name in lights last week in South Africa when, playing with Rory McIlroy, enjoyed every minute in the spotlight. Never leaving the leaders' side, he was still very much in the tournament down the last few and proved what many Challenge Tour observers had seen - he is a devil to shift when in a challenging position. A very aggressive putter, his play isn't quite at his standard level this week and whilst it may be he is still on a high, he has proven ability to shoot low and recover from any mistakes during tournaments. His win in the desert last October shows he can play these conditions and as expressed last week, I feel he is a better player in dry, humid and windy regions. The current price for a end-of-event charge is too big. Chris Hanson capped off his first full season on the ET with an admirable 108th on the R2D but he will surely be expecting slight improvement again this year. Four top-ten finishes in 22 events were encouraging enough but I like his recent runs, a missed-cut sandwiched with 11th at Leopard Creek (in the final group for Sunday), and last week's 26th in South Africa (16th after three rounds). He ended his rounds this week in contrasting fashion - his 18th (9th) on Thursday cost him a treble-bogey, whilst an excellent 66 today concluded with eagle in front of the stands and will pprove a huge boost. He has huge home support and just a shot outside the top-10, looks a tad on the large side.
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