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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability James Morrison 140 34th
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 190 mc
Felipe Aguilar 200 mc
Fabrizio Zanotti 200 67th
Mikko Korhonen 200 75th
Maximilian Kieffer 200 mdf
Alexander Bjork 250 34th
Mathieu Pavon 280 mc
Richard Bland 370 2nd
Joakim Lagergren 420 14th
Morisson has missed the cut in his last two starts and while he has fared better on this course than Gut Larchenhof, I would price him at higher odds than this
Lorenzo-Vera also missed the cut in his last event - his last cut made was in April - and he is 0-for-3 in cuts made on this course
Aguilar is another with an indifferent record on this course and while he finished 10th in the weak Lyoness Open, he had very little form at all beforehand
Similar story with Zanotti - he has missed the cut in each of his last two starts and in each of his last three visits to this course
Korhonen finished as high as 2nd in the Lyoness Open, but a record of 39th-68th-mc in his previous visits to this course suggest that he won't match that performance in this much stronger field
It has been over a year since Kieffer recaorded a top-10 finish in any event, so a strong performance looks unlikely this week
No top-10 finish for over three months and no previous history on the course suggests that long odds are warranted for Bjork
Pavon is another without any course experience and while he has had a couple of top-10 finishes recently, he has still missed more cuts than he has made this year
Bland has missed the cut in 8 of his last 9 visits to this course and hasn't secured a top-30 finish this year
Since finishing 2nd in the Qatar Masters, Lagergren hasn't secured a top-20 finish in a Tour event and with a best finish of 58th on this course, he is one to oppose this week Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Bernd Wiesberger 13 20th
Joel Stalter 38 51st
Hennie Otto 140 8th
Graeme Storm 150 67th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 160 12th
Niclas Fasth 160 20th
Renato Paratore 190 6th
The odds look very short on Wiesberger who is back in 11th place with both Stenson and Garcia ahead of him and ranks only 31st in greens in regulation over the first two days
Stalter's ball-striking has been even worse - 65th in dirving distance, 85th in driving accuracy and 42nd in greens in regulation - so I would be very surprised if he were still around the top of the leaderboard after rd3
This is Otto's first cut made since March so contention rust will be a factor for the South African over the weekend
Having missed the cut in his last two visits to this course, Storm is playing over the weekend but is back in 23rd place and his ball-striking stats give little indication that he will present himself with many birdie opportunities tomorrow
Aphibarnrat is even further back in 32nd place and is opposed at these odds with poor ball-striking stats over the first two rounds
Just one top-10 finish in the last six years (2015 Irish Open, 10th) is enough reason to oppose Fasth who finds himeself in 8th place after two rounds
Paratore won the Nordea Masters last time out, but he was 2nd after two rounds and not 23rd and struggling to find fariways, so these odds are justified
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