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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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4-9; -18.33pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Rory McIlroy 11 2nd
McIlroy is close to ending a very poor year - he plays this week and then ends his season next week when playing with his father in the Dunhill Links Championship - and when he said at the start of this month that he 'was waiting for the season to end', it is clear that his motivation as well as confidence is not particularly high this week. Playing this week meets one of his European Tour obligations with the Ryder Cup a year away, so he looks an easy player to oppose at these odds at the start of the event
Sergio Garcia 13 mc
The Masters champion is at least in decent form heading into this event, but his best-place finsih in the PGA Tour Playoffs was still only 10th and there will be quite a climate adjustment from the hot temperatures of Georgia to this week's event in Newcastle. He's the sort of player who will always be in contention at some stage in the event, but these odds look rather short for him to win given his transition from the PGA Tour Playoffs Pre-rd3 plays: BACK to win 20pts Lee Westwood 8.4 15th
It's normally a handicap to be the tournament host, but this has not proven to be the case with Westwood who has shot 66-65 to lie 2nd and three shots behind Hatton. With Hatton opposed (see below) and Westwood with finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the last four British Masters, this is an event in the Englishman's experience could make him a strong challenger over the weekend; the leaderboard already has a look of experience being important this week with Westwood, Poulter and Karlsson all in 2nd place
Chris Hanson 25 11th
Hanson is also in 2nd place, but not one of the experienced group, so siding with youth in this play. He has been in good form throughout September and led the Czech Masters after 36 holes so this price is high enough to warrant a play LAY 20pts liability Tyrell Hatton 3.2 8th
Hatton is in good form and has played well over the first two rounds to lead this event by three shots, but this price is rather short given that there is still half an event to go. There are five players who are three shots back and his record when leading is not too convincing: 0-for-1 when leading after rd1; 0-for-2 when leading after rd2; and 1-for-2 when leading after rd3 (2016 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but he shot 75 when sole leader at the start of the final round of the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship earlier this year) Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 20pts Rory McIlroy 6.8 2nd
Closing out the McIlroy play after his 64 saw him move to within two shots of the lead as the leaders struggled to match the low scoring of earlier in the day. If he can play as well again tomorrow he will win, so this guarantees a profit on the event and a small loss on the play if he doesn't
Robert Karlsson 11.5 3rd
Karlsson leads this event by a shot and his record on the European Tour is supportive - he has won 6 of 12 times that he has been in the lead at the start of the 4th round and 5 of 9 times that he has been sole leader. The only problem is that the last time was in 2008, but these odds more than make up for such contention rust given the apparent importance of experience this week
Graeme Storm 16 4th
Storm is a player in form with a 3rd place finish in the Portugal Masters and he is currently 2nd after 54 holes this week. With strong local support - he is from nearby Hartlepool and was at the course a month ago as part of the local promotion of this event - his odds are attractive enough for someone in this position
Richie Ramsay 16 8th
Ramsay is another in 2nd place and renounced for being very accurate from tee-to-green which is central to scoring on this course. He has already won three times on the European Tour so I would have expected his odds to be a little shorter
David Lingmerth 19 4th
Lingmerth is a shot further back in 7th place alongside McIlroy and he also took advantage of the better early scoring conditions to shoot 62. It is difficult to follow up such a low round, but he is in good form - a top-20 finish last week - and only two of the six players ahead of him rank higher in the World Rankings
George Coetzee 22 15th
No-one in this field can match Coetzee for form - he has been very close to winning in each of the last two weeks and despite a second round 72, he is only two shots off the lead. I would have expected much lower odds for a player in such form LAY 20pts liability Ian Poulter 8.8 11th
Poulter has started the final round inside the top-5 on the European Tour on two previous occasions this year - in the Dubai Desert Classic he shot 76 to drop from 3rd to 15th; in the Scottish Open he shot 74 to drop from 1st to 9th. A great player in his day, I don't see him being the one to take the lead and hold onto it tomorrow
Paul Dunne 12.5 1st
That is also the case wth Dunne who is also in 2nd place. He has never won on the European Tour and the last time that he was in a similar position - 2017 Scottish Open - he shot 74 to drop from 5th to 26th. I wouldn't price him at shorter odds than Storm and Ramsay who are also in 2nd place
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