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Thorbjorn Olesen 1point each way 45:1 With the mercurial Pablo up front, it doesn't take much imagination to oppose this ultra talented but frustrating character. Forget emotion, the fact remains that the Spaniard has been beaten the last three times he has led at halfway and has only one once from ten chances when in the final pairing going into the weekend -the French in 2008. I actually remember that event well and,as befits his temperament, he only has eyes for the flags, taking risks aplenty but nevertheless doing it well. I can't argue with the thought he is still inspired by Sergio's victory in Augusta, but he'll never be a bet at short prices. The course seems a tad easier the earlier they play and whilst they obviously have halved the field after the cut, there remains the possibility of a 62 or 63 out there before the leaders reach the vital final run. It's been tough choosing between the likes of Burmester, Luiten, Detry and Olesen but in the end the latter got the vote on his form on China. The Dane hasn't missed a cut in China in twelve starts and has posted recent figures of 8/15/8, that 'worst' position coming here last season after a third round 70, his worst of the week. Olesen is tough to get right but is as tough as any of these if it comes to a fight down the stretch (I'd certainly rate him above a few above him on the board) and it will all depend on his putting. He improved on his PPGIR in the second round (including an eagle and four birdies) and whilst he will need around 12-under at least for the weekend, he has enough in his record to suggest that's more possible than the 45/1 quotes suggest. Given the short list includes half a dozen players around the 25-66 prices, nothing would surprise but I just felt this proven winner was the pick.
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