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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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2-13; -28.26pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Matthew Fitzpatrick 16.5 54th
Jordan Smith 18 60th
Martin Kaymer 18.5 mc
Lee Westwood 24 9th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 48 mc
Benjamin Hebert 55 54th
Bradley Dredge 60 38th
Marc Warren 85 mc
Paul Waring 95 mc
Gregory Bourdy 100 25th
Fitzpatrick's form is a concern, but it is still only two months since he finished 2nd in the Nordea Masters and his course history reads 3rd-5th in the last two months so the odds are high enough to tempt
No such concerns over form with Smith who, in his last two starts, has won the European Open and finished 9th in the PGA Championship
Kaymer ways always on the fringes of contention last week and that was enough to warrant interest again this week with Ryder Cup qualification a consideration
Westwood is another who should be refocused with this first event of the Ryder Cup qualification process, so I would expect him to feature this week
No Ryder Cup angle with Aphibarnrat, but behind his lowly finish in his last outing, he was 4th after two rounds, so there form is there to win again on the European Tour
Hebert certainly has the form to contend and did hold the lead last week before finishing 6th; that's enough form to back him again
Dredge finished 2nd in the inaugural Czech Masters in 2014 and was 4th after the opeing round last year, so this is a course that suits his game
Backing another Tour veteran in Warren who played well last week, finishing 14th after being 2nd at the start of the weekend, and also has good form here with an 11th place finish last year
A 19th place finish here in 2014 could have been much better but for a final round 57 for Waring and he was very much in contention early last week, is another whose odds are high enough to tempt
That is also the case with Bourdy who was 4th after 54 holes in 2014 and 8th after 72 holes in 2015 so this is clearly a good course for his game LAY 20pts liability Thomas Pieters 8.6
Similar reasons to last week; he has great form on the course (1st-2nd in the last two years), but that was at a high point in his form and that has been largely missing this year, evident with the missed cuts in his last two starts so I can't price him at single figure odds this week Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Lee Slattery 2.38 2nd
Jonathan Thomson 46 54th
Slattery followed up yesterday's brilliant 65 with 67 today to overcome a three-shot deficit to Hanson and now leads by two. Given that he has been in very good form recently - 19th and 9th in his last two starts - and is 2-for-2 when sole leader after 54 holes, he is back to finish the job tomorrow
A much more speculative punt on Thomson who turned pro only a year ago and is making his European Tour debut; he has played very well so far this week and shot five birdies in seven holes on the back nine today to get himself into 4th place with one round to play LAY 20pts liability Haydn Porteous 3.55 1st
Pontus Widegren 19 3rd
Porteous has been in good form recently and lies 2nd shots behind Slattery, but these odds are still on the short side for a player who has yet to finish in the top-5 in a European Tour strokeplay event outside South Africa
Widegren does have a top-5 finish on the European Tour (2015 Madeira Island Open), but no other top-10 finishes so I don't expect him to stay in the top-3 tomorrow
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