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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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7-1; +20.18pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Rafa Cabrera-Bello 19.5 11th
Sergio Garcia 21 1st
Stenson is clear at the top of the market, but he has admitted in interview that he was "probably the most surprised" that he played as well as he did in Abu Dhabi (finishing 8th) as he had very litte time to work on his game so he can be opposed at such short odds. Cabrera-Bello is 2nd in the market and warrants that position as a former winner in 2012 and someone who came so close last year - he was either 1st or 2nd after each of the four rounds. Finishes of 19th and 6th suggest that he has the form to feature just as strongly this year.
Garcia has four top-20 finishes in his last five visits to the Emirates GC and with winds expected to be a feature this week, this should suit his game more than others. With his form good on the course - an 11th place finish already this year - and happiness off the course - he announced last month that he will get married to Angela Akins this year - he can be expected to play well this week LAY 20pts liability Jeung-Hun Wang 38 mc
Stephen Gallacher 120 9th
Jorge Campillo 140 23rd
Paul Dunne 150 42nd
Thomas Detry 240 mc
Wang won last week and while Justin Thomas may have already won back-to-back events this year, these odds are too short for Wang to do so on a course on which he has not previously played
Gallacher's record on this course is unparalleled - he finished 2nd-1st-1st-3rd between 2012 and 2015 - but he missed the cut last year and has missed the cut in both starts this year, so a repeat of his previous course form looks rather unlikely
Campillo had a share of the lead after 36 holes last week, but then shot 75 to drop to 34th, which shows why he can be opposed to win this event against a much stronger field
Like Campillo, Dunne is making his course debut this week and, given that his best finish in 32 starts on this Tour is 9th, he is another who can be opposed to win this week
Opposing another course debutant in the form of Detry. He did play well in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, but the rookie has been in contention over the weekend in any of his other Tour starts this season Pre-rd4 play: LAY 20pts liability Nacho Elvira 180 11th
Elvira had a couple of top-3 finishes on the European Tour last years so he is capable of getting into contention, but it will take an extremely strong effort if he is to do so tomorrow - he is seven shots off the pace and even if Garcia does falter tomorrow, there is World #4 Stenson is 2nd place to overtake as well. I can't see that happening.
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