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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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28-3; -13.72pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Soren Kjeldsen 70 mc
Renato Paratore 120 mc
Jaco Van Zyl 130 mc
Hao-Tong Li 130 7th
Graeme Storm 140 38th
Jordan Smith 150 30th
Dean Burmeister 170 mc
Eddie Pepperell 250 23rd
Mikko Korhonen 270 38th
Romain Langasque 280 50th
Thomas Aiken 290 234rd
Richie Ramsay 250 mc
Matt Wallace 360 mc
Paul Dunne 390 13th
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 400 3rd
Julien Guerrier 410 mc
Kjeldsen has plenty of good finishes here - 10 top-30 finishes in his last 11 visits to Le Golf National - but those do not include any top-5 finishes and given his struggles on his adopted Tour in the U.S., I don't see him a player who is likely to win this event this year
The rest are players are triple-digit odds whose odds are still too low in my estimation Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Thomas Pieters 11.5 13th
Ross Fisher 17 7th
Bernd Wiesberger 28 27th
Thorbjorn Olesen 46 3rd
Rikard Karlberg 85 45th
Alexander Levy 120 57th
Pablo Larrazabal 340 16th
Nacho Elvira 460 50th
The odds on Pieters look rather short for a player in 7th place and has struggled to find fairways and greens so far this week
Fisher has had more success in finding greens in regulation, but he has similarly driven very waywardly so far this week so I would price him at higher odds from the same leaderboard position as Pieters
Wiesberger's ball-striking stats are better than both Pieter's and Fisher's, but at 18th place and five shots off the pace, he is another whom I would price at higher odds
Back to player struggling to find the greens, Olesen is four shots off the pace in 10th position and has a record that reads mc-mc-mc-wd in his last four visits to Le Golf National, he is over-achieving so far this week
Karlberg's ball-striking stats so far this week make it hard to believe that he has even made the cut, so converting his current 10th place position looks extremely unlikely
The rest are players are triple-digit odds whose odds are still too low in my estimation Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Peter Uihlein 6.6 2nd
Alexander Bjork 8.6 3rd
This is Uihlein's first event since his former roommate and travelling companion, Brooks Koepka, won the U.S. Open and that positive mental association will help tomorrow as he shares the lead in this event; I'd price him at least a point lower to win this evet
It is a congested leaderboard, but these are big odds for a player sharing the lead (with one other); he has been very good from tee-to-green this week and he rebounded well from a poor start to claim this lead with three birdies in his last seven holes LAY 20pts liability Tommy Fleetwood 5.2 1st
Bradley Dredge 22 27th
Lee Westwood 55 10th
Andrew Johnston 75 23rd
Kristoffer Broberg 170 16th
Fleetwood is certainly playing very well this week, having carried over his form from the U.S. Open, but that leads to an expectation on him to convert this opportunity from 3rd place and I would price him just a little higher than these odds - remember he was 0-for-4 in cuts made on this course prior to this week, so confidence and form is working against that this week
Dredge had also missed his last three cuts here and is without a top-10 finish since August 2016, so he is clearly over-performing to be 6th with one round to play
Westwood is back in 10th place and will secure his first top-10 finish in six months if he stays there - he looks an unlikely player to make the needed signficant move tomorrow
Johnston is alongwide Westwood and similarly only has one top-10 finish this year so the same reasonly applies here
And another player in 10th place with indifferent form, Broberg's best finish over the last 12 months is 30th so he also looks an unlikely challenger
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