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Johan Edfors - 0.5 points each-way @ 125-1 (Ladbrokes) Lasse Jensen - 0.50 points each-way @ 66-1 (Ladbrokes) Looking back at the 'first' running of this event on the main Tour (around this track) gave enough clue to the type of player that would thrive here. Rhys Davies beat Louis Oosthuizen, with the likes of Ilonen, Levet, Garrido, Aiken and Rock behind, every one of those an exoponent of the accuracy over length type of player. There were no stats recorded back in 2010 and the winning score was 25-under, but when the course hosted last year the front of the board contained similar styles of player, Wang beating Elvira in a play-off, with Rock, Chris Hanson and Jose Lima all on the front page despite the winning score being a full twenty shots higher. Given that evidence, it is no surprise to hear players comparing Dar Es Salam with tricky Valderrama with its emphasis on tidy play, finding fairways and small tricky greens. There are chances for birdies playing that way but it seems as if bogey avoidance is the key here and the winner may well not improve on the current leading score of 6-under. I'm convinced by very few on the top of the lists at halfway. The French are clearly happy here with five representatives in the top 19 and Gregory Bourdy would easily be favoured of those, his win in Wales in 2013 coming on a tricky track. However Gregory Havret has not win since 2008, Hebert is a great prospect but has shown nothing this year although today's 5-under may be a catalyst, and Lorenzo-Vera and Dubuisson are enigmas that are hard-to-read. Lucas Bjerregaard and Paul Dunne are maidens in this grade, whilst James Morrison and Dylan Frittelli are very hard to win with. If having to pick the winner from the current leaderboard I'd probably put my hands up and shrug, which suggests looking further down the board for potential winners. With last year's winner coming from 17th after the first round, 2nd at halfway and 5th going into payday, there is that oppertunity for someone to go out relatively early, get through the very tricky first-9 and set to work up the leaderboard. Indeed, finishing around 3 or 4-under would be a perfectly attainable and realistic target, giving a chance on Sunday - and that brings in everyone down to level par. Johan Edfors has never really hit the heights he threatened in 2006, when winning three times on the main tour, but he has won three times since, once at Black Mountain in Thailand but most recently on the second-tier Challenge Tour, the latest on a Robert Trent-Jones course in Italy. He isn't the safest of coveniences, but has hit ten birdies this week and hasn't exploited the par-5s in the way that a big hitter can. It is always going to be about the putting for the Swede but he knows how to stay patient and at just four off the lead, 125-1 looks worth a poke. Lasse Jensen remains a maiden at this level but has shown progressive form since winning the Nordic League some eight years ago, improving through the Challange Tour, Q-school and gaining a best-ever ranking of 78th on the R2D last season, thanks mainly to a runner-up at the Nordea Masters but backing that up with a decent end to 2016. Although there are a couple of missed-cuts in his recent form, he can appear on high-quality leaderboards, notably with a 3rd at Dubai and 17th last time out at the Indian Open. He didn't seem to take to the 'other' Moroccan course, Royal Palais, but following his 22nd around here last season seems much more at home here, with just a single bogey spoiling that 69. In a very open event, his current tidy game should see him rise up the board. Respect has to be shown to Dunne and Hanson this year, with the latter having led going into payday twelve months ago. Given his clear enthusisam to improve (do read his blog, it is superb), he has to be feared given his place just outside the top-10 but he seems to find that one round to throw it away. Of course, it will come and very well could be at a course he loves, but at a best of 33-1, I may regret it but can leave him on this occassion. Nothing would shock me here and it may be that the top-10 at 5pm tomorrow resembles nothing like today's, but there looks certain to be a congested board tomorrow and hence further bet/s.
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