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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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2-15; -7.86pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Bernd Wiesberger 18.5 9th
Ross Fisher 29 31st
Lee Westwood 32 3rd
David Horsey 34 38th
Favrizio Zanotti 36 38th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 55 9th
Nacho Elvira 55 mc
Dean Bumester 65 48th
James Morrison 80 mc
Chris Hanson 90 25th
Nicolas Colsaerts 95 mc
Richard Bland 95 62nd
A runner-up on this course last year and the top-ranked player in this field re: World Rankings, Wiesberger looks to be better value than Luiten at the top of the market
Fisher is the second-best player in the World Rankings in this field and has hte game to play well on this course - he matched last year's winner in being 2nd in greens in regulation for the week and it was only his short game that week that saw him fall back over the weekend
The third-best player in the World Rankings in this field is Westwood and he is the ball-striking type of player who should do well here; a top-10 finish two weeks ago also suggests that he should be a contender
Horsey finished 2nd in his penultimate start prior to this week so his form is strong and a 4th place finish last year suggests that he warrants short odds this week
Zanotti finish 16th here last year and with top-3 finishes in his last two starts, he is a classic current- and course-form selection
Aphibarnrat finished 16th last year and while he is making his course debut, he is a previous winner on this Tour and should be available at shorter odds
Elvira does have course experience - he was inside the top-20 after two rounds last year - and while he didn't maintain his play over the weekend, he is a much more-accomplished player at this level now - he is looking for his fifth consecutive top-20 finish on this Tour
Burmester is also in good form - he finished 14th in the Czech Masters two weeks ago and looked capable of securing his second European Tour win of the season last week when 3rd after three rounds, but didn't convert
Morrison is another in good form - he was 7th after the opening round of the Made in Denmark, finished 5th in the Czech Masters and only a 3rd round 75 saw him finish mid-table last week
And the same with Hanson who was leading after two rounds in the Czech Masters; a top-10 finish on this course last year suggests he may repeat that feat this week
Colsaerts is much more speculative, though he certainly has the ability to win again on this Tour and a couple of top-10 finishes in summer suggest that he is not too far away from doing so
Much more standard and consistent is Bland who was 3rd with one round to play last year and has come very closing to winning twice already in the last year - British Masters and BMW International Open Pre-rd3 play BACK 1pt Joakim Lagergren 7.2 9th
A good position after 36 holes with three of the top-4 in the market backed pre-tournament, but it had looked very good last week... so adding the fourth player in that top-4 to the group. Lagergren is joint-leader with Stalter after 36 holes and while Stalter finished 51st in hte only previous time that he was in this position on the European Tour (2017 BMW International Open), Lagergren has won from this position on the Challenge Tour (2014 Northern Ireland Open). He was also joint leader with Stalter in the BMW International Open, but fared much better to finish 14th. He also finished in the top-20 last year, so looks more likely to still be a contender over the weekend. Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Romain Wattel 5.2 9th
Joel Stalter 13.5 3rd
Sebastian Heisele 21 3rd
Still a good position after 54 holes, but better to cover a few bases after Hend's failings last week. Wattel is Aphibarnrat's closest challenger and has played well this week - he has matched Aphibarnrat for greens in regulation - and looks most likely to profit if the Thai leader falters tomorrow
Stalter recovered well from a mid-round blip and is a shot further back in 3rd place - he has been very good on the greens so far this week and has also matched Aphibarnrat and Stalter in greens in regulation so far this week
Three shots back is Heisele in 4th place and while he is the least experienced in terms of this leaderboard position on the European Tour, he finished 7th on the Challenge Tour last week and the odds are a little larger than I would have priced LAY 20pts liability Lee Westwood 7.8
These odds are much shorter than I would price, so I am closing out part of the pre-tournament play on Westwood. It has been over five years since he won in Europe so I wouldn't price him this short to win from three shots back and in 4th place
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