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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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10-9; -4.92pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK to win 20pts Branden Grace 18 1st
There hasn't been a home winner of 'Africa's Major' for a decade, but I think that may change this week. Grace had a decent season on the PGA Tour this year and has had a good start to the new seasn with top-15 finishes in both the CJ Cup and the HSBC Champions. Ranked inside the top-50 in the World Rankings, he is one of the leading players this week without the pressure of the Race to Dubai. And with a course record that reads 4th-3rd in the last two years, he is likely to be the highest-placed home player.
Louis Oosthuizen 20 8th
Oosthuizen shouldn't be too far behind. He finished 31st in the FedEx Cup to conclude a very successful season on the PGA Tour in which he finished 2nd in both the Players Championship and the PGA Championship. Fully rested after the Presidents Cup, he is a veteren of six previous appearances in this event and warrants shorter odds.
Francesco Molinari 23 27th
Molinari also had a very good season on the PGA Tour, finishing 37th in the FedEx Cup and finishing 2nd alongside Oosthuizen in the PGA Championship. His ball-striking ability is very good and that is needed around this course. He is another that I would price a little lower for this event. LAY 20pts liability Tyrell Hatton 16 19th
In terms of form, Hatton should play well this week - he has finished 3rd-8th-1st-1st-11th-16th in his last six starts. However, that ignores the pressure that he was feeling as his form put him inside the top-5 in the Race to Dubai - after he fell over-par during his 3rd round last week he snapped his putter in two on the 17th green. For all his form, I don't see a player with such a temperament being at the head of the market for such a big tournament in the final stages of the Race to Dubai.
Tommy Fleetwood 19 10th
Leaders of the Race to Dubai tend not to play particularly well at this stage of the season because of the added pressure - not only the prize money on offer, but all the lucrative bonuses in his sponsorship contracts. Rose not playing this week may open the door for Fleetwood to all but secure the Race to Dubai title. but I think that this week will be just the same as his last four events - enough to secure points, but little more than on the fringes of contention to win the event. His best finish on this course is only 14th.
Matthew Fitzpatrick 22 8th
Fitzpatrick is another who has also been on the fringes of contention many times recently, but not really looked like winning since the European Masters - his last five finishes have all been top-15 finishes, but the best is only 9th. With a best finish of 16th on this course, I think this price is too short on him winning. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK to win 20pts Ross Fisher 9.4 34th
Dubuisson's bogey after the weather delay brings his lead down to two and makes this a congested leaderboard with 16 players within five shots of the lead. Fisher is three shots back in 4th place and has been playing well this week - he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation ver the first two rounds - has been playing well prior to this week - he has two 2nd place finishes in the last month - and has played well previously on this course - he has three top-5 finishes here.
Lee Westwood 9.8 6th
Westwood is a shot closer and has two wins in this event (2010, 2011) so knows how score well round this course - he leads the field in fairways hit so far this week. If Dubuisson does struggle - his record is only 1-for-3 when leading after 36 holes - Westwood has the experience to be the player to take advantage on this course.
Martin Kaymer 28 5th
Kaymer is also a winner here (2012) and ranks 1st in greens in regulation so far this week, which shows how well he is playing as well as how well his game suits this course. He is four shots back in 8th place, but these odds look given the scoring this week.
Joost Luiten 48 12th
There have been plenty of birdies, bogeys and double-bogeys so far this week so a five-shot gap with two rounds to play is a minor handicap at this stage. Luiten has been in very good recently and is another who ranks 2nd in greens in regulation so far this week, normally a crucial statistic on this ball-striker's course.
Scott Jamieson 48 2nd
Back up to 4th and only three shots off the lead for Jamieson. These odds are higher than I would have given for a player in this position who has played well so far this week - 5th in greens in regulation as well as 4th on the leaderboard - and finished 6th at Valderrama a few weeks ago, another ball-striker's course Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 20pts Victor Dubuisson 3.65 3rd
Considering that he was defnding the overnight lead of two shots, Dubuisson played very well today - he missed only one green in regulation today and so is the leader in this important category heading into the final round. He has an excellent record in the Playoffs - two wins in the Turkish Airlines Open, 4th and 3rd in the last two years here and three top-5 finishes in the last four years in the DP World Tour Championship - so he should be capable of at least maintaining his two-shot advantage over the 3rd-placed players. LAY 20pts liability Branden Grace 5.9 1st
Closing out the Grace play at lower odds than backed as six birdies in ten holes saw him get back into contention and 3rd place, three shots behind Jamieson. Not of his core stats - driving distance, driving accuracy or greens in regulation - were particularly impressive today, so any repeat tomorrow will be dependent on a hot putter again, so these odds look too low to me.
Martin Kaymer 8.8 5th
They also look too low on Kaymer so closing out this play as well. It has been over three years since his last win and in the two occasions that he has started the final round inide the top-3 this year, he has finished the day lower down the leaderboard.
Francesco Molinari 24 27th
And closing out the Molinari play as well. He shot the low round of the day (by two shots) to get back into contention, but he is still five shots off the pace and was unconvincing when last in contention - the Italian Open - so I would price him a little higher.
Charl Schwartzel 44 12th
A double-bogey at the last hole following a plugged ball in the bunker has taken Schwartzel six shots off the lead and as he has bogeyed the hole in each of the other two days, it had not been a good hole for him. However, that bad luck detracts from the fact that he only hit eight greens in regulation today so he will need a huge improvement in that department if he is to get back into contention tomorrow.
Ross Fisher 46 34th
Fisher is alngside Schwartzel and six off the pace. He wasn't able to make any headway today after playing so well over the first two days, so I don't see him coming back into contention from this position.
Louis Oosthuizen 50 8th
Oosthuizen is another who has struggled over the closing holes on this course and that included a double-bogey at the 17th to end the momentum that he had gained over the middle part of the round. Another play that I am closing as he is six back.
Lee Westwood 75 6th
Like Fisher, Westwood had been impressive over the first two rounds but looked a different player today, struggling and ultimately failing to avoid an over-par round. Another player who now looks very unlikely to make up the six-shot gap, so closing out the play.
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