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Rikard Karlberg 0.75-way 80/1 (1234) Jens Fahrbring 0.25 each-way 300/1 (1234) Seb Soderberg 0.50 each-way 100/1 (1234)
History dictates that whilst winners need to be up with the pace at halfway, the board can change dramatically between the opening rounds. Anyone from level par is able to get competitive after tomorrow, giving them advantage going into the weekend.
Local, or at least regional form often comes to the fore here and I'm taking a chance on a couple of Swedes to improve from the first round and keep the course members interested over the weekend.
Jens Fahbring has a couple of top13 finishes this year, both at tricky courses in India and Morocco. Scores in Sicily were not out of a horror film but pale into insignificance compared to form in this part of the world. Winner in Norway, placed in Sweden and with good efforts at the Rolex are a level down from the Nordea but that Portugal Masters effort shows he can compete and he had a better score than many through the difficult 'final' holes of today's round. It's a tad speculative but the price is too big.
In similar vein, Rikard Karlberg looks a bit big. Simply, he has a 3rd and 7th here since 2013 and although he missed the cut at the BMW, that was by just one shot. Runner-up to CHRIS Wood at Wentworth last year suggests this may be his time of year and his score could have been a bit better today. Hard to read, he pops up at suitable locations and this has to be one of those.
Finally, Nordea 3rd in 2015, Sen Soderberg has been lighting up the stats page for a while now and has good form on difficult tracks. He played well for 16 holes today before a poor finish, but 2-under is a great place to recommence. 100-1 looks to underestimate the influence the local crowd will have.
Given Stenson's continual short price in the event, there looks to be value everywhere you look. Hopefully these three are the best!
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