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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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3-6; +18.26pts No pre-tournament plays. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK to win 20pts * Note change of staking strategy to provide consistency across BACK and LAY plays * Lucas Bjerregaard 7.8 1st
With finishes of 9th and 12th in the last two years here and 9th last time out, it is no surprise that Bjerregaard is the favourite at the halfway-stage from 2nd place on the leaderboard, but I would price him a little lower than this
Joost Luiten 8.8 12th
Luiten is a shot further back, but also justifies the single figure odds as it is only 12 months since he last won on this Tour is his ball-striking is good enough this week so suggest that he may improve on his 2nd place finish here in 2010
Nino Bertasio 11 12th
Bertasio leads this event by one shot and there are still two days of high-pressure golf to come, but the one time that he has been in this position on the Challenge Tour (2015 Irish Challenge), he only lost out in a playoff; I'd price him at lower odds to convert this chance
George Coetzee 14 7th
Coetzee led this event with Luiten after day one and he starts day three a shot further back than the Dutchman, but Coetzee's record here reads 3rd-6th-21st-31st and he finished 3rd last week, so I expect him to bounce back tomorrow
Marc Warren 16 2nd
Warren has showed some glimpses of form over the last couple of months and he led this event after both round 1 and 2 last year, so I wouldn't price him this high to convert from 2nd place on the leaderboard Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 20pts Nacho Elvira 23 7th
Elvira has been in good form recently with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts and his finished in the top-10 here last year so he was expected to play well this week; at these odds and three off the pace, he is finally value to back
Graeme Storm 34 3rd
Storm is alongside Elvira in 6th place and he doesn't have Elvira's fine, he has won twice on the European Tour previously including the South African Open this week, so he is certainly capable of converting the opportunity if he is still in contention on the back nine LAY 20pts liability George Coetzee 5.3 7th
Coetzee did bounce back today with a late eagle, but I'm still closing out the play for a risk-free profit if he loses; he is 1-for-6 when 2nd after 54 holes and 1-for-3 when one shot back after 54 holes (and the win was the same event both times - 2011 Telkom PGA Championship), so I think these odds are a little low given that record of converting such opportunities
Eddie Pepperell 8.8 3rd
Pepperell is certainly a player in form with top-5 finishes in his last two events and he is 3rd and two shots back in this event, but he also struggles to convert opportunity, failing to win a European Tour event previously and his only Challenge Tour win was over five years ago
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