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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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5-1; -0.28pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Bradley Dredge 65 21st
Admittedly, he is a player who tends to finish just short of the winning line - he has two wins and 13 runners-up finishes on the European Tour, including two in the last eight months - but he opened his 2017 season with a top-20 finish in Abu Dhabi last week and he finished 4th in this event last year and 5th in 2010 when he led after 18 and 54 holes. He looks to be a likely contender for three rounds and hopefully one to trade out at profitable odds before the final round. LAY 20pts liability Paul Dunne 130 21st
Jorge Campillo 140 13th
Sam Brazel 400 mc
Course experience is important in this event - each of the last five winners had at least one top-20 finish here in the two years before their win - so Dunne's lack of course history is an obvious reason to oppose him. Another is his failure to record a top-5 finish on this Tour.
Campillo does have course experience, but a best finish of 20th in five attempts is not supportive of a good week, and he does have top-5 finishes on this Tour, but is still looking for his first win after 162 European Tour starts.
Brazel does have a win in just 18 European Tour starts - 2016 Hong Kong Open - but he finished 60th last week in his first event of the year and he has no course experience, so I'm not expecting another surprise win. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Simon Dyson 100 69th
Bernd Wiesberger 120 37th
Dyson is only one shot off the pace, but with nine co-leaders and 26 players within two shots, this is not a typical event. Given that his last top-10 finish in this event was nine years ago and his last top-10 finish in any event was back in 2014, he looks an unlikely player to separate himself from the pack
It is a very congested leaderboard, but Wiesberger's odds are much too short for a player in 57th place on the cut line. He may be one of the best players in the field, but he certainly warrants higher odds from this position. No round 4 plays.
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