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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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11-9; -22.98pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK to win 20pts Sergio Garcia 16 4th
The conclusion to a long season arrives this week with 55 of the 60 players playing last week and 49 of the 60 playing in each of the last two weeks. Having not played since winning the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama four weeks ago, Garcia is more rested than any other player in the field. Yes, he can mathematically win the Race to Dubai this week, but it needs Fleetwood to finish outside the top-40 and Rose outside the top-4. That won't happen so Garcia has none of the pressure of the Race to Dubai, won last time out and was in the lead after 36 holes on this course last year. Together with the rest, I would price him lower than 16.
Branden Grace 19 31st
Rest is not an issue for Grace - he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week - and he also has none of the pressures of the Race to Dubai as a regular on the PGA Tour meant a limited schedule on this Tour. Rose won back-to-back and so can Grace - apart from the hugely impressive golf that he showed last week on a similar length course, he has finishes of 9th, 6th and 3rd in the last three years here. LAY 20pts liability
Justin Rose 7.8 4th
Victories in his last two starts and two 2nd place finishes in five previous appearances here makes Rose a justifiable favourite, particularly as he chose to rest last week. However, those in contention for the various 'Money List' titles in these end-of-season events always appear to under-perform under the pressure, so I will look to oppose Rose at such odds pre-tournament.
Jon Rahm 13 1st
This is a long course and that should suit Rahm, but this is his course debut and his last three finishes have been 15th-mc-36th. These have been on the European Tour and a WGC event in China, so maybe he spent so lng improving his game at the University of Arizona that he warrants his World #5 ranking on American courses, but not in Europe. Either way, these odds look far too short.
Tyrrell Hatton 18 8th
It has been a marathon of a Race to Dubai campaign for Hatton who won back-to-back titles in early October to get himself into contention. That pressure saw him snap his putter two weeks ago towards the end of a poor round and he was very inconsistent last week. Again, I would price him at higher odds.
Matthew Fitzpatrick 21 12th
Fitzpatrick is the defending champion and finished 4th two years ago which is surprising as this course shouldn't really suit someone so short off the tee. His form is good with a win in the European Masters followng by six consecutive top-15 finishes, but he is opposed as he was last week as the best of those top-15 finishes was only 8th. He is consistently on the edge of contention but hasn't really looked like winning since Crans-sur-Sierre and I still don't think that this course suits his game.
Victor Dubuisson 32 13th
Dubuisson is almost as short off the tee as Fitzpatrick and yet he can also count a 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finish on this course, so maybe I should revise my thoughts on it. He has finished 3rd in two of his last three starts, but apart from his two victories in the Turkish Airlines Open, these finishes show how he has come so close so often but failed to win. That was evident on Sunday, so I will oppose him to win against this field.
Thomas Pieters 34 58th
This is a course that should suit Pieters, but apart from glimpses at the Turkish Airlines Open, there has been little evidence of the form needed to win in this company and his finishes on this course - 22nd and 40th - also generate little confidence that he will be able to be competitive for four rounds here. I would price him at much higher odds. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK to win 20pts Justin Rose 5.1 4th
Closing out the Rose play for a small loss if he wins. He hit every green in regulation yesterday and should have had a share of the lead after day two, but for taking four to get up-and-down on the last hole. The week's rest has been very good preparation for this week and I would price him half-a-point lower to win his third event in a row. With a poor book after 36 holes, closing out this play looks sensible given the odds.
Tyrrell Hatton 5.8 8th
Also closing out the Hatton play for a smaller loss if he wins. Like Rose, he had a bogey six on the last hole - he needed two shots to get out of the greenside bunker - but that hides the 10-under-par that he was for his first 17 holes. He will be in the final pairing with Fitzpatrick and the motivation/concentration levels will be higher than uaual - he led this event with one hole to play last year, but a bogey six allowed Fitzpatrick to steal the win.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 20 2nd
Aphibarnrat is in contention over the weekend yet again on this Tour. He has failed to convert his chances recently, most famously when in control at the Italian Open, but these odds are a little higher than I would give for him to win from joint-3rd place (alongside Rose) and two shots back.
Patrick Reed 22 10th
It wasn't going to be easy to follow up yesterday's 65 and a couple of late bogeys to drop back to 5th will not help his mood, but I would still price him a little lower to bounce back tomorrow if there is no repeat of his back pain earlier this week. The leaderboard is still very congested and he is only three shots off the pace.
Tommy Fleetwood 32 21st
A still think that it is difficult to compete for two titles in one event, but it was still a very impressive round by Fleetwood today to get himself back into contention, only four shots off the pace. Playing three groups ahead, he can certainly put some pressure on Rose tomorrow and these odds are a litlte higher for such a player in this position.
Soren Kjeldsen 42 36th
Rather more speculative on Kjeldsen as he is very much a player under-the-radar this week. However, he is in 6th place and only three shots behind Fitzpatrick and he does have a good record on this course - in the last two years here, he has finished 10th and 4th. Pre-rd4 plays: Lay 20pts liability Tommy Fleetwood 11.5 21st
Eight birdies in his last 11 holes was a very impressive comeback from Fleetwood, but I still see Rose winning this event and the Race to Dubai. He has looked far more in control of his game this week and could have been a couple of shots better today; the pressure is really on Fleetwood tomorrow to attack the course and I doubt that it will be set up as easy as it was today.
Dylan Fritelli 14 4th
It's difficult to follow up a 63 as Hatton found today and while he won the Lyoness Open in June, it was against a very weak field and playing in the final pairing with Rose will be pressure that he has not faced before.
Dean Burmeister 36 4th
Burmester has never won a Tour event outside his native South Africa and hadn't shown any form coming into this event; I can't see him being Rose's main challenger tomorrow.
Paul Dunne 38 25th
Dunne won the British Masters lst month so has form coming into this event and he played solidly today, but I would price him a little higher from 7th place and three shots behind Rose.
Julian Suri 50 8th
Suri is in the same place on the leaderboard, but looked likely to finish the day in a much higher position. That drop-off in his game when he got so close to the lead does not augur too well for tomorrow if he does get as close to the lead again.
Patrick Reed 65 10th
Five birdies in his last eight holes saved Reed's round, but a 68 still saw him drop five places to 11th and four shots behind Rose. There are too many good players between him and the top of the leaderboard so closing out this play.
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