|
9-2; +3.64pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player. Thomas Pieters 9th Pre-tournament LAY 7.4 (18.5) [10pts] 1st and 2nd in 2015/16, 6th last time out in the PGA Championship and seeking to force his way into the Ryder Cup, Pieters is worthy of a short price for this event, but this is the European Tour and seldom do such hot favourites win these events. It has been two years since his last win, so I won't side with him at this price pre-tournament. Pre-rd3 LAY 3.9 (6.4) [10pts] Pieters is 3rd and two shots off the lead so is justified in still being the favourite at this stage, but these are extremely low odds for a player in 3rd place and the leaderboard is very congested around him - there are 50 players within five shots of him, including three alongside him in 3rd place, so this event is still wide open. Pre-rd4 LAY 34 (70) [10pts] Six shots behind the two leaders and in 8th place, this is a very tall ask for Pieters to be a strong challenger for this title. He struggled for accuracy off the tee and so only hit half the greens in regulation - in this form, he will not be challenging tomorrow. Eddie Pepperell 9th Pre-tournament LAY 24 (30) [6pts] A couple of 5th places finishes here as well as 2nd and 6th last month on this Tour point to Pepperell being justified as second-favourite. The fact that he was available at more than triple these odds when winning in Qatar this year - his one Tour title to date - suggests that these are atypically low odds for Pepperell. Pre-rd3 LAY 34 (42) [4pts]
Pepperell is one of those only three shots behind Pieters and five shots off the lead. He ranks outside the top-100 in driving distance and greens in regulation so far this week, so there is little indication that he will be one of those to make a charge over the weekend. Pre-rd4 LAY 70 (95) [5pts] Alongside Pieters and six shots off the pace, his game improved a little today, but not enough to prevent his odds from doubling during the day as he looks too far back to challenge for this title. Dean Burmester mc Pre-tournament LAY 24 (44) [10pts] Burmester has plenty of length off the tee which will be an advantage this week and he did finish 14th last year, but he has never won outside his home country (South Africa) so these odds do look rather low. Matt Wallace 36th Pre-tournament LAY 29 (50) [10pts] He did win the BMW International Open in June but has missed his last four European Tour cuts since then. A good performance at the PGA Championship is not enough to suggest to me that he is a likely winner this week. Pre-rd3 LAY 10.5 (22) [10pts] Wallace found his game today, having struggled badly on day one, and is now 7th and three shots off the lead. But it is always difficult to follow up the low round of the day and the leaderboard is very congested from 3rd place onwards. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Danny Willett 18th Pre-tournament LAY 34 (60) [10pts] There has been a clear improvement in his form this season, but it still remains that his last top-5 finish was in February 2017 so I wouldn't price him as the fifth-favourite to win this event. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Haydn Porteous 36th Pre-tournament LAY 36 (80) [10pts] Last year's winner has length off the tee so this course should suit (though his previous finishes here were 60th-mc) and he did finish 6th last week, but he had been struggling for form for some time so confidence may be fragile. This will be the first time that he will defend a European Tour title, so the added pressure will not help his game at all if his confidence is fragile. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Lee Westwood 61st Pre-tournament BACK 36 (32) [2pts] These odds are a little large for me. He finished in the top-10 here last year and for all that he hasn't won this year, there have only been two European Tour events since February in which he has competed and not been inside the top-10 after at least one of the rounds. Pre-rd3 BACK 85 (55) [6pts] Westwood has played well so far this week, but he just couldn't convert his chances today. He shot 66 in rd1 to finish the day inside the top-10 and even though he ranked 2nd in greens in regulation today, he managed just one birdie and dropped to 24th. He is still only six shots off the lead and playing well enough to shoot a very low score tomorrow. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Lucas Herbert 44th Pre-tournament LAY 40 (120) [10pts] He did finish 5th last week, but has only been in contention in one other event in the last six months (Sicilian Open), so I don't rate his chances on his course debut this week. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Andrew Johnston mc Pre-tournament No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Scott Hend 70th Pre-tournament LAY 55 (160) [10pts] Another big-hitting player priced on his potential suitability to the course. His is making his debut here and while he has contended in the last couple of months, his final round performances in the BMW International Open, Scottish Open and European Open suggest that he is not a player to side with if he gets into contention. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available.
|
