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11-4; -6.56pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Thorbjorn Olesen 20th Pre-tournament LAY 11 (18) [10pts] The leading player in this field and a justified favourite, but he has the triple pressure of being the favourite, being a home player in the only Tour event in Denmark and playing in the last qualification event for the Ryder Cup. On a tree-lined course that doesn't seem to suit his game, I would rather be opposing him at these odds at this stage of the event Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Thomas Pieters 34th Pre-tournament LAY 14.5 (24) [10pts] He can't qualify for one of the automatic spots on the Ryder Cup team, but a strong performance would make him a likely wildcard chance. He had the opportunity for just that last week and struggled under the pressure over the weekend, so I think that the added Ryder Cup pressure is sufficient reason to oppose Pieters on a course much less suited to his game than last week. Pre-rd3 LAY 17 (24) [10pts] He has struggled for accuracy off the tee so far this week, particularly in rd1, so now he is available at higher odds than pre-tournament, in 9th place and six shots off the pace. He failed to take advantage of a much better opportunity last week, so I think these odds are too low. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Matthew Fitzpatrick 7th Pre-tournament LAY 19.5 (27) [8pts] Opposing another Ryder Cup hopeful. Fitzpatrick needs to win and Olesen not finish in the top-six to earn his place in the team. Given his lack of form, he won't earn a wildcard selection for the team so that means added pressure to win. As his last top-10 finish was three months ago, I happy to predict that he won't win this week. Pre-rd3 BACK 120 (80) [6pts] He may be in 37th place and nine shots off the pace, but he is capable of shooting a low score around this course if his putting improves. These odds look rather high so worthy of a small stakes play. Pre-rd4 LAY 75 (180) [10pts] His odds are shorder than yesterday, but Fitzpatrick is still six shots off the pace and in 13th place. He has made good progress up the leaderboard, but not enough to warrant these odds with one round to play. Eddie Pepperell 56th Pre-tournament LAY 29 (36) [4pts] Opposing the last of the Ryder Cup hopefuls. Like Fitzpatrick, Pepperell needs to win and Olesen not finish high on the leaderboard and while his form is much better than Fitzpatrick and the course suits him much better than Olesen, I still think that this is a high pressure week that doesn't fit well with a player like Pepperell. Opposing for smaller stakes than the others. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Lucas Bjerregaard 6th Pre-tournament LAY 30 (55) [10pts] Already a winner on the European Tour (2017 Portugal Masters), but his status as fifth-favourite is as much about being a home player as that win. But home players tend not to play well under the pressure of events such as these - only stop on the European Tour schedule in that country - and that has shown in his previous finishes in this event - mc-mc-63rd-28th. The tree-lined course shouldn't suit his game either. Pre-rd3 LAY 25 (55) [10pts] He was in a strong position after rd1 - 2nd place, but the pressure of being a home player didn't help as he failed to gain any momentum today, so he is now 9th and six shots off the pace. He is now the joint-leading Dane in this event, so the pressure will be very strong so I would price him at higher odds to convert from this position. LAY 55 (95) [8pts] He is one shot closer to the lead and one place higher on the leaderboard, but with only one round to play it looks very unlikely that there will be a home winner this week. Matt Wallace 1st Pre-tournament LAY 40 (65) [8pts] He is certainly capable of winning in this company as he did in the BMW International Open, but his form since then has been poor - four consecutive missed cuts, followed by a good showing in the PGA Championship before managing only one sub-70 round last week en route to finishing 36th. Pre-rd3 LAY 14 (30) [10pts] He may be in 7th place and only five shots off the pace, but he ranks only 57th in greens in regulation. Given his recent scrathy form, I don't see the confidence in his game to be as strong a challenger as these odds suggest. Pre-rd4 LAY 5.1 (7.4) [10pts] He is a proven winner on this Tour and that is reflected in these odds, but they are rather short for a player in 5th place and not at the top of his ball-striking game - he ranks 35th in greens in regulation so far this week. That will be relevant under the pressure of final round contention. Thomas Detry 7th Pre-tournament LAY 44 (55) [4pts] A 3rd place finish in the 2016 Alfred Dunhill Championship and a 2nd place finish in 2017 BMW International Open are Detry's only top-5 finishes on the European Tour. That makes him an easy player to oppose as 7th-favourite. Pre-rd3 LAY 12 (15.5) [7pts] It was a poor end to his round after getting to within a shot of the lead - he was two-over-par for his last seven holes and is now in 5th place and four shots off the pace. Given his lack of top-5 finishes on this Tour, such an occurence may be expected so I think his odds should be a little higher. Pre-rd4 BACK 4.2 (3.75) [7pts] He again failed to score well over the final five holes, but he is just one shot behind Westwood with one round to play and he has been in good form recently. I would price him a little lower to finally win on this Tour. Martin Kaymer mc Pre-tournament LAY 48 (60) [3pts] Kaymer did finish 2nd as recently as June in the BMW International Open (he started the final day in a share of the lead), but there have been no similar bursts of form recently, so I'm happy to oppose him at this stage of the event. Danny Willett mc Pre-tournament LAY 55 (60) [1pt] Opposing him to small stakes as there have certainly been glimpses of form with his fourth consecutive top-25 finish on the European Tour earned last week. He hasn't really threated to win a title, but he is getting closer. Matthew Southgate 20th Pre-tournament No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd3 BACK 80 (75) [1pt] In 21st place and seven shots off the pace, but in good form so I would price him fractionally lower. Pre-rd4 LAY 840 (1000) [10pts] In 17th place and seven shots off the pace, I simply can't see him being a serious challenger for the title tomorrow.
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