|
1-1; -19.86pts No pre-tournament plays. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Hao-Tong Li 3.45 1st
Li has won previously on the European Tour - the 2016 China Open - but that was from off-the-pace as he was 3rd at the start of the final round before claiming the win. In terms leading after 54 holes, the last time was in the European Tour-sanctioned 2015 China Open when he shot 74 in the final round to finish 6th and the time before that was the 2016 Panama Championship (Web.com Tour) when he shot a final round 76 to finish 11th. It's been a long time since he has been in this position and he didn't perform well on those occasions, so I don't see him defending this one-shot lead over McIlroy. I'm not sufficiently convinced by McIlroy's play to double-up and back him at odds-on, though I would be tempted if the odds were above evens, so opposing Li is the main play for the final round.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 140 6th
Of the rest, the Spaniard's odds are too low. He has been very poor tee-to-green this week and is six shots back with the leaderboard extremely congested from his position downwards. I'd certainly price him higher than this.
|
TIPS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
-
Tips will normally be provided the evening before the
market goes in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided
in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 20pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 20pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
20/(9-1) = 2.5pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 20pts are
staked to win 2.5pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 20pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 20pts
|
