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12-5; -0.50pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Matthew Fitzpatrick 1st Pre-tournament LAY 13 (21) [10pts] Course form is very important around this course and he has finished 2nd-7th-1st in the last three years, but his form has been poor for some time prior to his top-10 finish last week and I would price this event as being far more wide open even if he warrants favouritism. Pre-rd3 LAY 4.6 (7.8) [10pts] The defending champion and in 2nd place with two other players, so he warrants favourtism, but he is rather rusty. Only once has he been in the top-5 after 36 holes this year and he finished 27th on that occasion (Open de France) so these odds look rather short. Pre-rd4 BACK 1.73 (1.59) [10pts] Fitzpatrick was very impressive today and takes a two-shot lead into the final round over Mike Lorenzo-Vera (who has never won on this Tour and his sole Challenge Tour victory was in 2007) and a four-shot lead over the rest of the field. His ball-striking stats are extremely, his course figures read 2nd-7th-1st in the last three years and he is 2-for-3 when leading after 54 holes (the only time that he didn't convert was in this event in 2015 when he was co-leader with Danny Willett, his first time in this position, and he shot 66 to finish one shot behind Willett. I make him a much stronger favourite.
Thomas Pieters mc Pre-tournament LAY 25 (42) [10pts] Pieters missed the cut in 2014 and finished 60th in 2015 and hadn't been back since, so that is evidence enough that he doesn't think that this course is ideally suited to his game. Less than 7,000 yards and played at altitude, it doesn't suit his length off the tee. Add in the fact that he has been overlooked for a Ryder Cup wildcard and this does not look like a good opportunity to prove Thomas Bjorn wrong. Lucas Bjerregaard 2nd Pre-tournament LAY 27 (50) [10pts] He did finish 9th here last year and he has finished in the top-10 in his last two starts, but he ranks 204th in scrambling on the European Tour this season and those stats are vital given the small, upturned-saucer greens this week. Pre-rd3 LAY 7.2 (11.5) [10pts] Alongside Fitpzatrick and Ghim in 2nd place, two shots off the tee. He has won before on this Tour (2017 Portugal Masters), but he has managed to finish just short so many times when in contention that I would price him a little higher at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Charl Schwartzel 8th Pre-tournament LAY 28 (65) [10pts] Schartzel hasn't played here since 2010 and is now an infrequent visitor to this Tour - he missed the cut in The Northern Trust in his last event - so I doubt that he will be as competitive on this quirky, mountainous course as on a traditional European parkland course. Pre-rd3 BACK 29 (28) [1pt] These odds look a little large for someone of his calibre and only five shots off the pace. Pre-rd4 LAY 490 (890) [10pts]
Eight shots off the lead, so I would price him at much higher odds with Fitzpatrick in the lead. Matt Wallace 51st Pre-tournament LAY 30 (65) [10pts]
It was very impressive end to his round last week to get into the playoff and he then showed his winning abilities in the playoff to win his third European Tour title of the year and his fourth in total. That's really impressive for a player who was competing on the Alps Tour two years ago. However, in his previous three events following a European Tour win, he has finished 38th-mc-mc so that, plus his course history of finishing 70th last year, is enough for me to oppose him in this follow-up week. Pre-rd3 LAY 55 (100) [9pts] Being six shots off the pace in 25th place alone warrants higher odds than this, but also ranking outside the top-100 in greens in regulation is plenty reason to expect him not to feature this weekend. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Thomas Detry mc Pre-tournament LAY 34 (50) [8pts] Another player in very good form, but he missed the cut here last year and course form is so important here that I'd price him at higher odds. It was pointed out that last week that he only has two top-5 finishes on this Tour and for all his form last week, he still only has two. Ryan Fox 30th Pre-tournament LAY 34 (38) [2pts] He did finish 9th last year, but this course shoudn't suit his game at all - he ranks 7th in driving distance and 215th in scrambling on the European Tour this season - so his price looks a little short. Pre-rd3 LAY 36 (48) [6pts]
In 16th place and in a very congested part of the leaderboard; he will need two very good rounds to be a serious contender this week. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Danny Willett 59th Pre-tournament LAY 34 (80) [10pts] Willett won this event three years ago and has a number of good finishes here, but I don't see him as a potential winner with his game at the moment. It is certainly better than last year, but it is still 19 months since his last top-5 finish in any Tour event. Pre-rd3 BACK 12.5 (11) [3pts] In 5th place, just three shots off the pace and ranking 3rd in greens in regulation so far this week, he has been playing well and warrants slightly lower odds from this position. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Kiradech Aphibarnrat 45th Pre-tournament LAY 38 (55) [7pts] Has a best finish of 16th here in four attempts and hasn't shown any real form since May, so he is an easy player to oppose at these odds. Pre-rd3 BACK 130 (120) [1pt] Slightly underpriced given his leaderboard position and his abilities to shoot low scores. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Lee Westwood 12th Pre-tournament No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd3 BACK 75 (60) [3pts] A congested leaderboard, but only six shots off the pace and in very good form, so slightly underpriced. Pre-rd4 LAY 160 (340) [10pts] Got off to the perfect start - three-under-par after five holes - but couldn't maintain the momentum and is now seven shots off the pace.
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