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Betfair Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

European Open
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8-1; +2.57pts

 

No pre-tournament plays.

 

Pre-rd3 plays

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Bryson DeChambeau 3.4  (3.70)  [6pts]  13th
This is the fourth time that DeChambeau has held the 36-hole lead in a Tour event in 2018, which is an impressive achievement until it is also noted that he has failed to win on any of the previous three occasions this year or even remain in 1st place at the end of the 3rd round. It was a similar story when he held the 36-hole lead in the Puerto Rico Open last year and that makes these odds rather short given his one-shot lead over the field.

 

Pre-rd4 plays

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Bryson DeChambeau 3.1  (2.6)  13th
The weather delay came at a good time for DeChambeau today as he came back with a better game and now shares the lead with Richard McEvoy heading into the final round. He converted from this position to win the Memorial Tournament last month and he sounded upbeat in his post-round interview. He does have a swing that is repeatable and that should serve him well tomorrow if he remains as positive.

 

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Patrick Reed 3.25  (4.1)  9th
In contrast to DeChambeau, Reed was a frustrated figure in his post-round interview as he once again struggled off the tee, hitting just three fairways and ranking 71st (of 73) in driving accuracy so far this week. It is difficult to put any pressure on the leaders with such a handicap off the tee, so he is worth opposing at this price from 3rd place.
Paul Casey 11.5  (12.0)  [1pt]  7th
There is a gap between the top-4 and the rest of the pack and that includes Casey as its head in sole 5th place. I think the odds are a little low given that position.
Scott Hend 48  (100)  19th
Hend is four shots back in a four-way tie for 6th place. Given that he is searching for his first top-5 finish of 2018, he looks an unlikely challenger tomorrow.
Romain Wattel 95  (170)  [8pts]  5th
Wattel is in the same position and fully justifies his odds being double those of Hend. He has just one top-50 finish in his last eight starts and had been 0-for-3 in cuts made in this event until this week.
Renato Paratore 110  (270)  2nd
Opposing another who is four shots back in 6th place. Like Wattel, he has just one top-50 finish in his last eight starts, so would be another very unlikely challenger tomorrow.
David Drysdale 130  (180)  [5pts]  9th
The full set. Opposing the fourth and final player in 6th place. Whereas Hend has the much shorter odds than the others, Wattel, Paratore and Drysdale rank 138th, 142nd and 129th, respectively, in the Race to Dubai. That says enough about the seasons that they have had and the contention rust they will now battle with tomorrow.
David Horsey 180  (510)  39th
A shot further back and ranking 65th (of 71) in greens in regulation so far this week. Horsey looks to be another who is unlikely to detract from an American head-to-head for this title tomorrow.

 



TIPS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided the evening before the market goes in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.

Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.



Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.