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2-1; -2.35pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 10pts liability unless stated Justin Thomas 13.5 (20) 8th
It may be suprising that Thomas is the only American playing week given that Le Golf National is the venue for the Ryder Cup in only three months' time. The appearance fee money can be a factor as a current Major champion, but I simply don't expect him to play like a World #2 this week. For one, he hasn't played like one since the Masters - his finishes have been 17th-mc-21st-11th-8th-25th-56th. And secondly, his record in European Tour events reads mc-53rd-mc. There is a very strong field for this event and, with the exception of Garcia who is also making his course debut, all the leading players have good form on this course. Fleetwood, Noren and Rahm look more likely contenders this week. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 10pts liability unless stated Jon Rahm 4.9 (5.2) [3pts] 5th
Rahm heads the market at the mid-point even though he is in 3rd place and three shots behind Marcus Kinhult. Given that he has won his last two European Tour events, he certainly does warrant favouritism, but these odds are lower than I would expect given the leaderboard position and his play so far this week. He ranks only 28th in greens in regulation so far this week and acknowledges that he has not been playing particularly well. As he stated in inerview after today's round, "actually played a lot worse and I was able to scramble a couple of holes. Probably about as low of round as I could have done today". Given that play, these odds seem a little low. Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 10pts Marcus Kinhult 3.55 (2.55) 5th
These odds look too high given that he has a two-shot lead over Wood; three-shot lead over Garcia; four-shot lead over Rahm and no-one else is within five shots of him. They are also too high given his performance when recovering from a double-bogey on the second hole to record five birdies in a row to open up a five-shot lead. More conservative play and a stunning run of birdies by Wood means that he has ended the day with the same lead that he started with - two shots. He will be nervous tomorrow, but he will be encouraged by how he performed today when under pressure and this odds are too high given that performance.
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TIPS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
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Tips will normally be provided the evening before the
market goes in-play;
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Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided
in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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