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3-1; -5.91pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 10pts liability unless stated Rory McIlroy 7.8 (10) 28th
To say that McIlroy has a mixed record in this event is rather an understatement. He won at the K Club in 2016, but has missed the cut every other time in the last five years. Part of the may be that the Rory McIlroy Foundation has hosted this event since 2015 so there is a lot of additional work as well as attention away from the golf course this week. Another may be the weight of expectation upon him as he plays in his home Open. He hasn't won a European Tour title since the Irish Open and he hadn't played Ballyliffin for 12 years until he arrived there this week, so there is plenty of reason to think that this price is too short at this stage of the event. No pre-rd3 plays. Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 10pts unless stated Erik Van Rooyen 1.94 (1.25) [10pts staked] 4th
Van Rooyen takes a four-shot lead into the final round, but his position is better than that single stat - the chasing pack is highly separed with only four players within six shots of him and of the seven players within seven shots of the leader, only one ranks in the top-100 in the World Rankings (Russell Knox, 87th). If he is comfortable in the lead, there is a much better than 50-50 chance of him winning tomorrow. He has been in this position twice in the last year - the first time he held a one-shot lead in the Kazakhstan Open in September and finished two shots back in 4th place; the second time he held a two-shot lead in the Hainan Open in October and won by two shots. He already has a runners-up finish on the European Tour this season and should go one better tomorrow. LAY 10pts liability unless stated Ryan Fox 8.0 (13.5) 2nd
Fox is one of those four shots back having been in the lead after both the 1st and 2nd rounds. He did recover after a shaky start today, but he has never won on this Tour (best finish: 3rd) so doesn't look the most likely to challenge for this title after today's round.
Joakim Lagergren 9.4 (19.5) 12th
Lagregren has already won on Tour this season - Sicilian Open - but he has been in very poor form in the run-up to this event - he has missed the last three cuts, averaging 76.3 over that period. That makes his performance so far this week rather surprising, but is opposed as his price is based on his win in Sicily rather than his underlying confidence in his game.
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TIPS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
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Tips will normally be provided the evening before the
market goes in-play;
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Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided
in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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