10-2; -6.08pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Alex Noren 13  (15.5)  [5pts]  23rd
Gardagolf hasn't been used on any of the European Tour since 2006 so there isn't much course form to use this week and the course setup doesn't help too much: the greens are small, but the ground is soft; the fairways are tree-lined, but not particularly narrow. Of the leading players, Noren looks the most under-priced. He played well last week to finish 3rd, but his form has been patchy and he hasn't fared well in this event or on this course: his best finish in the Italian Open is 38th (five attempts) and when he played here on the Challenge Tour in 2006, he finished 45th. There's enough to oppose him for small stakes at this stage.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Francesco Molinari 6.2  (6.4)  [1pt]  2nd
Molinari is in a five-way share of 2nd place after 36 holes and I think that is a little value in opposing him at these odds. The leaderboard is very congested with plenty of good players in contention, but there are two main reasons for opposing him given the leaderboard position. One, he won last week and it is very tiring (mentally) to follow up a win with another strong challenge for a title. Two, that effect is larger when you are playing in your home Open in the second week. He has won this title twice previously (2006 and 2016), but four of the last five years, he has struggled under the enormous pressure of being in contention in the final round as the home player: in 2013, he started the final round 2nd and finished 16th; in 2014, he started the final round 7th and finished 18th; in 2013, he finished the 1st round 2nd and finished 20th; and last year, he started the final round 2nd and finished 6th.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Francesco Molinari 3.55  (2.88)  2nd
He started slowly today, but wasn't punished for it as so many players failed to take control of this event and now he has finished the day in the same position - 2nd - but with a much less crowded leaderboard and behind a much less experienced leader. I still think that the pressure on him will be intense tomorrow and it won't be easy after winning last week, but those closest to him in the World Rankings and Race to Dubai are at least two shots behind him. He led the field in greens in regulation today and a similar performance tee-to-green tomorrow, whatever pressure may bear on the greens, will see him win this title for the third time.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Thorbjorn Olesen 6.4  (7.4)  [5pts]  1st
An untidy finish saw Olesen fall out of the lead. He has won four times on the European Tour previously, but he hasn't secured a top-25 finish in a strokeplay event this year, so an untidy finish maybe was to be expected. In the final pairing with all the crowds following Molinarin the group ahead will be an unusual experience tomorrow.
Lee Slattery 8.6  (12)  3rd
The current leader has won twice on the European Tour previously (2011 Madrid Masters, 2015 Russian Open), but he started the day in 17th place, shot 62 and saw no-one else get close to that score. It's difficult to follow up such a score and particularly when you're ranked 172nd in the Race to Dubai and looking set to lose your Tour Card. It should be a difficult day tomorrow.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 14.5  (15)  [1pt]  4th
Just enough value in these odds for a small LAY bet. Two back of Molinari, having started the day level, he is the top-ranked player within five shots of Molinari but doesn't convert enough chances to win.
Hao-Tong Li 23  (34)  [9pts]  19th
Li is in the same position and does have a better conversion rate, including the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year, but he has been in poor form recently and hasn't recorded a single top-30 finish since that win in January.
Ian Poulter 34  (40)  [3pts]  8th
A double-bogey at the last hole severely dented Poulter's chances of winning and while his form has been very good recently, his tee-to-green play this week suggests that he should be priced a little higher.
Thomas Pieters 42  (55)  [5pts]  14th
Pieters is also three shots behind Molinari and a little over-priced. He hasn't had a top-30 finish since February, so contention rust will be an issue.
Scott Hend 95  (190)  14th
Hend is on the same mark on the leaderboard, but warrants much higher odds - he hasn't secured a top-50 finish in any of his last eight starts and, at 163rd in the Race to Dubai standings, will be playing under a lot of pressure tomorrow as he tries to keep his Tour Card.
Matteo Manassero 140  (320)  36th
A shot further back in 14th place is Manassero whose best finish in the last eight months is 20th. Contention rust and confidence are key factors in expecting his price to be much higher.
Jacques Kruyswijk 230  (310)  [8pts]  14th
Kruyswijk has been in better form, but with a best finish of 4th on the European Tour, and that was in South Africa, plus a rank of only 56th (of 73) in greens in regulation this week, he looks a very unlikely winner from so far back.