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10-0; +2.38pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Eddie Pepperell 6th Pre-tournament LAY 19.5 (60) [10pts] It's a course designed by Colin Montgomerie so greens in regulation stats should always be important and they have in the last two years here - Joost Luiten ranked 2nd in GIR when winning in 2016; Romain Wattel ranked 10th in GIR when winning last year and 2nd placed Connelly was 2nd in GIR. Pepperell's scoring is based around his short game and he has ranked 56th and 47th in GIR in his last two European Tour events. His form was better in July and so were his GIR stats, but his form has dipped and this is not the ideal course for him despite his 3rd place finish last year when in much better form (he had just finished 5th in the Czech Masters). Not the market leader for me. Pre-rd3 LAY 38 (130) [10pts] Eight shots back in 21st place and ranking 93rd for greens in regulation so far this week, I would price Pepperell at much higher odds to win from this position. Lee Westwood 36th Pre-tournament LAY 22 (28) [6pts] Westwood's game is built around ball-striking - he ranks inside the top-10 in greens in regulation on the European Tour - and he is in very good form. But he has also shown in the last couple of weeks that he is not quite the player that he was when in contention, so I'd price him a little higher. Pre-rd3 No play. His odds looks correct to me. Ryan Fox mc Pre-tournament LAY 27 (36) [6pts] At less than 7,000 yards in length, this is hardly the best course setup for the big-hitting New Zealander and he failed to break 70 in any round last year when making his course debut. His best form was in July, so an over-performance looks unlikely this week. Kiradech Aphibarnrat mc Pre-tournament LAY 30 (42) [6pts] Heavily odds-on to win during the back nineon Sunday last year, Aphibarnrat found a way to lose, finishing 9th. He has shown no real form recently, so I would price him at higher odds to repeat last year's feat (for 68 holes, at least). Erik Van Rooyen 11th Pre-tournament LAY 30 (70) [10pts] Had a great opportunity to win the Irish Open in July, but struggled in the final round to finish 4th. Given that he has better that just once on the European Tour and that was in his home country (2017 Joburg Open, 2nd), these odds look very short on him winning this week, particularly when making his course debut. Pre-rd3 LAY 90 (200) [10pts] Played well today to jump 80 places up the leaderboard, but he is still only in 36th place and nine shots behind the leader. He will need two very good rounds and the wind to be a factor to have any chance this week. Mike Lorenzo-Vera mc Pre-tournament LAY 34 (38) [2pts] Traded odds-on on Sunday to win the European Masters, but took seven on the 14th hole when in the lead. May be boosted by his form last week and a return to a course on which he finished 8th in 2016, but Sunday is still a difficult thing to overcome when he had control of the tournament. Chris Wood 2nd Pre-tournament LAY 36 (55) [8pts] Finished 9th last year after a closing 65 saw him finish better than he played, but he has not been in great form and he hasn't ranked in the top-10 for greens in regulation in any event so far this week. Pre-rd3 LAY 11.5 (17.5) [10pts] Had been in a good position after 27 holes, but was two-over-par for his back nine today. He is now in 5th place and five shots off the pace. He is more likely than most of those around him to make a challenge over the weekend, but these odds over-estimate the likelihood of that happening. Andy Sullivan 28th Pre-tournament No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd3 No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Ross Fisher mc Pre-tournament LAY 40 (44) [2pts] In no real form at the moment - finishes of mc-mc-39th-17th-65th-59th in his last six starts - and with finishes of 45th and 31st on this course, I think his odds should be a little higher despite his status as the 3rd-highest ranked player in the World Rankings in this field. Hao-Tong Li 24th Pre-tournament LAY 42 (70) Fisher may be the 3rd-highest ranked player, but Li is the 2nd-highest in terms of World Rankings (Aphibarnat is the highest-ranked). However, he is also without any real form at the moment - finishes of mc-23rd-39th-39th-wd-mc in his last six starts - so his slide down the World Rankings look set to continue for another week. Pre-rd3 LAY 7.8 (9.8) [10pts] He has played well this week and is certainly Wu's strongest challenger, albeit from four shots back. However, he hasn't produced a single top-15 finish since winning the Dubai Desert Classic in January, whereas Wu has won twice on the European Tour in the last three years and finished 6th in the European Masters last week. These odds are too low.
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