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11-2; +3.00pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Thorbjorn Olesen 4th Pre-tournament LAY 10.5 (15.5) [10pts]
He is certainly the star player in this field - the only one ranked inside the World top-75 - but have competed in the Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship in the last two weeks, it's a tall ask to then compete on this Tour and warrant these odds. Not consistent enough for me.
Pre-rd3 LAY 7.4 (10.0) [10pts] He couldn't maintain the early momentum in his round today and is now five shots off the pace, which does make these odds rather short given that leaderboard position. Will need to improve his short game to justify these odds. Pre-rd4 LAY 4.9 (7.8) [10pts] Olesen did improve his short game in rd3 - 2nd in putting average; 2nd in putts per round - but he needed to as he ranked only 35th in greens in regulation. He is three shots behind the two leaders and with those stats, I would price him higher than the current market sentiment. Alexander Bjork mc Pre-tournament LAY 21 (26) [5pts] Also a player who competed in the Bridgestone Invitational and PGA Championship and while he did win the China Open in April, these are rather short odds for such a player so worth opposing to small stakes in his home event Martin Kaymer 61st Pre-tournament LAY 29 (34) [3pts] Certainly capable of winning in this company and he did come close in the BMW International Open in June, but it has still been four years since he won, so the price looks a little short Pre-rd3 LAY 16 (21) [9pts] Also five shots back, but the opposite game so far this week to Olesen - his short game has rescued a tee-to-green game that doesn't warrant such a leaderboard position. Pre-rd4 No play. No available lay odds. Joakim Lagergren 34th Pre-tournament LAY 32 (50) [9pts] Another who has won already this year (Sicilian Open), but he is a very hit-and-miss player - he has missed the cut in 7 of 14 starts this year - so I wouldn't price him at such odds Pre-rd3 No play - the odds look correct. Pre-rd4 No play. No available lay odds. Marcus Kinhult 45th Pre-tournament LAY 36 (75) [10pts] Another Swede whose is priced amongst the favourites because of his promise and nationality rather than any form. He played well in the Open de France, though he did struggle badly in the final round as tournament leader, but his form this year has generally been very poor with just one top-50 in his other last eight starts. Pre-rd3 No play - the odds look correct. Pre-rd4 No play. No available lay odds.
Lucas Bjerregaard wd Pre-tournament LAY 36 (46) [5pts] He did have a purple patch of form in April-May, but there has been little evidence of it recently with finishes of 61st-mc-mc-39th in his last four starts.
Thomas Detry 13th Pre-tournament LAY 38 (48) [5pts] Without a top-10 finish since his opening event of 2018, Detry is another without any real form heading into this event, so I expect the value to lie with opposing him this week. Pre-rd3 BACK 290 (260) [3pts] Opened with three bogeys after starting the day inside the top-10 so is now nine shots back. Certainly capable of shooting a very low score, so a speculative punts to very low stakes. Pre-rd4 No play. No available lay odds.
Matthias Schwab mc Pre-tournament LAY 44 (60) [5pts] Presumably inside the top-10 in the market because of his 7th place finish in the European Open. He has done well as a Tour rookie this season, but it is still a bis step-up to be priced near the top of the market. Matthew Southgate 10th Pre-tournament No play. The odds seen correct at this stage. Pre-rd3 No play. No available lay odds. Pre-rd4 LAY 290 (600) [10pts] Seven shots behind the two leaders in 13th place, he will need a career round and lots of help from those ahead of him to be a genuine contender tomorrow.
Soren Kjeldsen 45th Pre-tournament BACK 44 (40) [2pts] When he finished 2nd the last time that he played in this event (2015), it was Alex Noren who won this event. That highlights the difference in quality between that year and the current event. He is certainly capable of winning against such company so a small play to support the Dane is warranted. Pre-rd3 LAY 24 (28) [4pts]
Has been good from tee-to-green so far this week and had been backed at the start of the week, but, starting the weekend five shots back, these odds looks like an over-reaction so the value now lies in opposing him. Pre-rd4 No play. No available lay odds.
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