|
13-6; +2.42pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Lucas Bjerregaard 20th Pre-tournament LAY 16.5 (34) [10pts] In great form and won here last year, but no-one has successfully defended the title here as it has been a great event for outsiders, so I'm keen to oppose him at these odds. Pre-rd3 LAY 55 (90) [10pts] In 25th place and six shots off the lead, Bjerregaard's odds should be higher given his leaderboard position and his play so far this week - 115th in driving accuracy, 65th in greens in regulation Pre-rd4 LAY 550 (1000) [10pts] Nine shots off the pace in 19th place. I'm surprised that there are any lay odds available. Sergio Garcia 7th Pre-tournament LAY 21 (46) [10pts] Handed a wild card for the Ryder Cup, Garcia is presumably here as he tries to find some form ahead of next week's event. There is added pressure on the Wild Cards to justify their selection next week, so winning on his course debut here would be a major surprise given his form and the distraction of next week. Pre-rd3 BACK 60 (36) [9pts] Had been very much higher but closed with three bogeys to drop to 25th and six shots off the pace. Has shown so far this week that his form is returning, so these odds may fall quickly if he gets a fast start tomorrow. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Thorbjorn Olesen 20th Pre-tournament LAY 23 (28) [5pts] Would be the tournament favourite in my book but still too short given that he is making his debut in the Ryder Cup next week, so may easily be distracted, and he has yet to finish in the top-15 here in six attempts.
Pre-rd3 BACK 150 (160) [1pt]
Only seven shots off the pace in 36th position, but if Oliver Wilson can shoot 59 around this course then so can Bjerregaard. Odds should be a little lower given his ability. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Charl Schwartzel 40th Pre-tournament LAY 25 (44) [10pts] In good form with an 8th place finish in the European Masters last time out and he does have three top-10 finishes in four visits here, but the last was in 2010 so I don't put a lot of weight on that. It has been ten years since he recorded a top-3 finish in Europe, so I think he is overpriced. Pre-rd3 BACK 46 (30) [8pts] Only five shots off the pace in 16th place and his ball-striking has been good so far this week. Good odds given his proven ability and only five shots behind the leaders. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Shane Lowry 6th Pre-tournament LAY 25 (30) [5pts] Won this event in 2012, but that was the last time that he won in Europe and his finishes here read mc-33rd-29th since that win. He has played well on the PGA Tour over the last couple of months without seriously threatening to win and hasn't looked likely winning on this Tour for a long time. Pre-rd3 BACK 14.5 (10.5) [8pts] Only three shots off the pace and a former winner of this event. I expect him to be a strong challenger over the weekend. Pre-rd4 No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Andy Sullivan 20th Pre-tournament LAY 26 (29) [3pts] Won here in 2015 by nine shots and missed out by a single shot to Harrington the following year so I would make him my 2nd-favourite this week, but his odds are still a little low. This is not an event for favourites and his form hasn't been particularly impressive recently. Pre-rd3 LAY 44 (50) [3pts] Only five shots off the pace, but he has had a great week on the greens and not as impressive getting there - he ranks 95th in greens in regulation so far - so I would price him a little higher to win from this position. Pre-rd4 LAY 80 (100) [4pts] Seven shots off the pace and ranking 63rd (of 78) in greens in regulation, he appears to be an unlikely player to threaten the leader tomorrow. Eddie Pepperell 2nd Pre-tournament LAY 34 (50) [8pts] Finished 3rd last year and recovered well in the final round on Sunday to finish 6th, but his odds are too short on him to win this week.
Pre-rd3 LAY 5.1 (12) [10pts] His form is good and he is joint-leader after 36 holes, but I don't see him as a good front-runner - he has led after 36 holes twice previously: in the 2014 Nordea Masters, he then shot 65-72 to finish 6th, and in the 2017 Indian Open, he then shot 78-76 to finish 22nd. It is congested leaderboard and he will be under a lot of pressure this weekend. Pre-rd4 LAY 9.2 (10.0) [4pts] Dropped out of the lead as he struggled to make an impact on the back nine today. Given his previous difficulties as a front-runner, I think these odds are a little too low that he will bounce back and overcome the four-shot deficit. Nacho Elvira mdf Pre-tournament LAY 40 (60) [7pts] Top-10 finishes in the last two years sees Elvira at a much lower price than previously seen - he was available to lay at 110 only two weeks ago. These odds are too low for a player ranked 190th in the World Rankings and coming off a missed cut last week. Pre-rd3 BACK 500 (440) [5pts]
Eight shots off the pace, so these odds are rather large for someone with strong course history and Oliver Wilson showed how quickly a player can move up the leaderboard. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Thomas Detry mc Pre-tournament No play. His odds look correct at this stage. Ryan Fox 27th Pre-tournament LAY 38 (55) [7pts] Missed the cut last week and missed the cut on his debut last year. I don't see why his odds are this low. Pre-rd3 BACK 380 (330) [5pts] Eight shots off the pace, but the odds look a little too high given his ability. Pre-rd4 LAY 250 (640) [10pts] Shot 64 to jump 37 places up the leaderboard to 15th, but if the leader also shoots 64, then he is still eight shots off the pace and the odds should better reflect his chances of winning from this far back.
|
