|
George Coetzee 2.0 points each-way @ 9-1 (1/5 12345) Matthieu Pavon 0.50 points each-way @ 50-1 (1/5 12345) Aaron Rai 0.25 points each-way @ 100-1 (1/5 12345) A very strong links-biased leaderboard but George Coetzee stand out from the top of the betting. Hard to add much to the South African's course form of 7/12/5/2 in four of his last five starts here and after a weekend of 66/66 at Fancourt last week, the 10-1 looks an each-way steal, certainly for doubles if not the single. He is scrambling like a dream this week so far and that is off very poor approach play for his standards - expect this to improve this weekend and I make him closer to 13-2 from here so he is a must play. On pure links form, Stephen Gallacher is a huge runner and will appreciate it more should more wind arrive to make it tougher but at the same price as the selection, looks slightly less able to finish the job given his own course form. Instead, one firm still offer first five, so take a chance that Matthieu Pavon can continue a decent spell of form. The improving Frenchman will prefer chasing the pace as opposed to protecting a lead, such as he had last week in Oman and is a better putter than he has shown so far this week. He will certainly give himself plenty of chances, ranking highly in GIR, and ultimately tidiness may prove far more of an asset than any other over a tough weekend. Finally it is no secret that I am a huge fan of Aaron Rai and expect him to win at least once over the next year or so. Multiple winner on the lower tier, he has already shownn he can compete at this level with finishes in Joburg, Denmark and Valderamma, all courses that require a bit of nous and can be affected by wind. Generally his tee-to-green play is ranking very high as it is this week, and it is a matter of getting the ball to drop. His first win last year in Kenya came courtesy of some incredible short-game play and that may help this weekend to negate what is clearly an issue with his current game. However, there have been many instances in the past of great approach players tweaking the putter and getting results off fine ball-strking and at the price, he is worth taking a chance with given he surely can't repeat such a poor back-9 (first 9 today) again.
|
