2-1; -0.01pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Matias Schwab 18  (36)  12th
You know it's a weak field when the top-3 in the market are ranked 326th, 269th and 415th in the World Rankings. Schwab is the market leader and, admittedly, doesn't have such a strong field to compete against, but his winless on both the main and the Challenge Tours and was competing on the Challenge Tour when the Tour held its flagship event at Wentworth two weeks ago. He did finish 14th in this event in 2013, but a 4th place finish in the Indian Open is his only other top-15 finish on this Tour. And then there is the home player angle. Even if he starts well, as the leading Austrian in this field, he will be under huge pressure over the weekend and it is difficult enough when trying to win a maiden Tour title. 

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Mikko Korhonen 4.9  (5.4)  [5pts]  1st
Korhonen's price was 5.6 to LAY last night so that is quite a shortening of his price and so he represents value as a player to oppose. He did finish 15th in the BMW PGA Championship two weeks ago, which is a standout performance in this field and he did finish 2nd in this event last year so there are good reasons for the low price on the leader. However, he has previously held the 36-hole just once on the European or Challenge Tour (2017 Qatar Masters) and he didn't perform under the pressure particularly well: he finsihed 41st. He fared better on the one occasion that he has held a 54-hole lead (2016 Portugal Mssters) when he finished 3rd, but he still failed to win and is without a win on either the European, Challenge or even the minor European Tours since they started earning World Ranking points. Players under pressure take longer over their shots and that will be penalised this week. Thi format is certainly novel and interesting and should make for good entertainment over the weekend, and one reason for this is that it will make leading the event even more difficult than usual.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 10pts stake

Mikko Korhonen 1.44  (1.20)  1st
From leading the event at the start of the day, it was an extremely impressive performance by Korhonen who hit 17 greens in regulation and extended his lead to five shots. He may be seeking hi maiden Tour win, but only one other player in the top-10 ranks higher than him in the World Rankings (David Horsey), so I think the Finn will not fear any of his challengers, particularly as the primary motive, for most of them, will be to safeguard a high finish as the look to correct a poor Race to Dubai position. Finally, there have been 25 times that a player has held a five-shot lead after 54 holes on the European Tour (ignoring co-sanctioned events) and that player has won 20/25 times. The odds are clearly too high on Korhonen to convert this five-shot lead.