4-2; -11.34pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Andy Sullivan 18  (30)  3rd
Sullivan leads the field in terms of form - he finished 21st in the Open de Espana and 7th in the Trophee Hassan II last month - but he didn't play in this event last year and finished 114th in the 2012 Sicilian Open on this course. With the forecast for conditions to be windy on this open course next to the sea, there is plenty of reason to oppose the market leaders in this lower-tier European Tour event. 

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Julien Guerrier 3.85  (4.5)  6th
WIth two top-20 finishes in his last three starts and an 8th place finish here last year, Guerrier is a player who could be expected to be in contention at this stage of the event. He leads alongside Lucas Bjerregaard, but whereas the Dane has won previously on the European Tour (2017 Portugal Masters), Guerrier's best finish on this Tour is 3rd. He managed that mark in the Oman Open earlier this year when starting the final round as the co-leader before finishing three shots off the pace. Leading with 36 rather than 18 holes in much harder, so I'm surprised to see these odds so low. His record is 0-for-4 when leading after 36 holes on both the main European and the Challenge Tour, so I certainly price him at higher odds.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts 

Mike Lorenzo-Vera 2.42  (2.26)  2nd
Lorenzo-Vera has a two-shot lead over Guerrier and Lagergren, a three-shot lead over Bjerregaard in 4th place and then the 5th-placed are six shots back so this is largely a four-player race tomorrow unless Lorenzo-Vera shoots an over-par round tomorrow. There has been little sign of that happening so far. He has shot 64-63 over the last two days, leads the field in birdies and ranks in the top-3 for par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring this week so all parts of his game are working very well. Admittedly, he is attempting to win his first European Tour title, but he has won on the Challenge Tour, is the highest ranked player in terms of World Rankings of those players within five shots of the lead and he has finishes of 10th and 17th against much stronger fields this year. I would price him at lower odds to win tomorrow.

LAY 10pts liability

Joakim Lagergren 4.8  (4.9)  1st
Lagergren is another looking to win his first European Tour title, though he has had several good chances to date, but has shown that he is not particularly good under pressure. Last year, he led both the BMW International Open and the KLM Open after 36 holes, but finished 14th and 9th, respectively. In February, he started the final round of the Qatar Masters inside the top-10, but shot 76 to finish 46th. He did finish 3rd in the Trophee Hassan II, but that was from off the pace. These odds look just a little too short.
Lucas Bjerregaard 7.8  (10)  5th
Bjerregaard started today's round in a share of the lead, but opened with a double-bogey on the first hole. He has won previously on the European Tour (2017 Portugal Masters), but he missed four cuts in a row before finishing 6th last time out. That means his form is good, but confidence may be fragile so I would price him at higher odds to bounce back from three shots off the pace.
Andrea Pavan 75  (160)  9th
Pavan is one of those six shots off the pace so warrants much higher odds than the first four on the leaderboard. He is in good form, but he had missed the cut in both previous attempts on this course and he is another still searching his first won on this Tour.