Preview & Tips

Valderrama has been the scene of many a memorable moment in its short history. The 1997 Ryder Cup will be remembered as Seve’s Ryder Cup as he pushed the boundaries of what a non-playing captain should do, but it will also be remembered for Tiger Woods hitting a putt into the water on the famous 17^th hole. He would also take eight there on the penultimate hole in the 1999 American Express Championship when leading by two (he would beat Miguel Angel Jimenez in a playoff). But the more recent history has seen a focus away from the 17^th hole to simply be an exhibition area for Sergio Garcia’s many skills. He has won the last three Andalucía Masters and has finished outside the top-10 just once in 14 tournaments played at Valderrama.

The course staged the season-ending Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008, while also staging the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000. After staging the Andalucía Masters in 2010 and 2011, Valderrama disappeared from the European Tour schedule for a number of years before returning in 2016 for the Open de Espana and the re-convened Andalucía Masters from 2017 onwards. That means that there is plenty history, albeit only three events in the last seven years.

The course is tough. The fairways are narrow, sloped and lined with cork trees, while the greens are smaller than average for the European Tour, but are fast and undulating. Despite the famous 17^th hole, water only features on three holes at Valderrama.

Valderrama is clearly not a course for either the bombers or the more aggressive players on Tour, which should be bad news for Jon Rahm, who missed the cut on his only previous appearance. Simply finding a player who matches Garcia’s game – very strong with the driver and around the greens – would be a feasible angle, but there is a rich course history and that identifies different angles.

Angles to consider

1. Course history is important at Valderrama

This is a quirky course so experience is key here. Garcia is the obvious example of that, but it is also evidenced by the players who finished just behind the winners. Last year, Shane Lowry finished 2^nd to Garcia and his previous record at Valderrama read 18^th-4^th-12^th. Joost Luiten finished 2^nd to Garcia in 2017, having finished 2^nd at Valderrama in the 2016 Open de Espana and 5^th in the 2010 Andalucía Masters. Andrew Johnston’s win in the 2016 Open de Espana may be the viewed as the exception to the rule, but it was the first time in five years that Valderrama had been used on Tour so it would be difficult to record high recent finishes on the course, but the three players directly behind him were Joost Luiten (2^nd, previous finish of 5^th at Valderrama in 2010), Sergio Garcia (3^rd, winner of the last event at Valderrama in 2011) and Soren Kjeldsen (4^th, 2^nd at Valderrama in 2010).

2. Greens in regulation is the key stat

Good ball-striking skills and good course management are key to securing a strong greens in regulation stat and those are very important at Valderrama. All five winners of the four Andalucía Masters and the 2016 Open de Espana have ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation that week (top-ranked in two of five cases). By comparison, it is one of five for driving distance, four of five for driving accuracy, four of five for putts per green in regulation and two of five for scrambling. Accuracy off the tee is clearly important, but finding those small, undulating greens at Valderrama will be a winning strategy this week.

3. The par-fours where this event is won (and lost)

For all the drama of the 17^th hole, a par-five, it is the ability of the players to manage the winding corridors between the cork trees that determines success on this course. An inability to do so can lead to high scores, so course management on these holes is important. The last five winners here have ranked 2^nd-1^st-1^st-3^rd-1^st in par-four scoring that week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Julian Suri

Suri didn’t play last year but did manage a top-10 finish on his course debut two years ago. He does rather fit the game profile of Garcia – he ranks 6^th in ‘strokes gained – off the tee’ and in the ‘total driving’ category (the sum of driving distance and driving accuracy ranks), he ranks 1^st on the European Tour. That control onwards to the green is reflected in his 15^th place ranking for ’strokes gained – tee-to-green’ and that is crucial around Valderrama.

Ross Fisher

Fisher was backed last week and missed the cut, but he still ranks 1^st in ‘strokes gained – approach’ and 12^th in ‘greens in regulation’ on the European Tour. In terms of course history, he has played in five tournaments at Valderrama and finished in the top-25 every time so this is clearly a course that suits his game very well.

Matthias Schwab

By contrast, Schwab is making his course debut this week so angle #1 clearly doesn’t apply in this case. However, he ranks inside the top-30 on the European Tour for ‘greens in regulation’, ‘strokes gained – approach’ and ‘par four scoring’ so meets the other angles for success around this course. With an excellent short game, ranked 10^th on the Tour for ‘scrambling, and boasting very strong performances at the Made in Denmark and BMW International Open events in the last month, he could certainly duplicate Andrew Johnston’s success as a course debutant here.

David Lipsky

The American secured a top-25 finish here last year and has shown good form over the last six months. He won the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December and finished inside the top-5 in both the Trophee Hassan II and China Open. He recovered well from an opening 74 to lie 107^th after rd1 and finish 26^th last week so is worthy of consideration even if his playing stats are generally poorer than his scoring stats.

Tips:  0-4; -6.00pts

0.75pts e.w. Julian Suri 30/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  15th

0.75pts e.w. Ross Fisher 50/1 (Skybet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  mc

0.75pts e.w. Matthias Schwab 45/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

0.75pts e.w. David Lipsky 50/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  53rd