Preview & Tips

The European Tour’s flagship event has a renewed status thanks to the PGA Tour. The compression of the Majors into a three-month period has forced this event to be re-scheduled to September. It is now the start and (next year) the end-point for Ryder Cup qualification for the European players and some of the PGA Tour’s finest are also on view this week because of its scheduling.

The change of scheduling from May to October will certainly complicate the handicapping of this event, but at least there was a long history of Wentworth hosting the HSBC World Match Play Championship in Autumn for those old enough to remember the days when the BBC could offer extensive broadcasting of golf events.

The last HSBC World Match Play event was held in October 2007 and there have been significant course changes since then, most notably in 2009/10. Those changes were not universally welcomed, while the more recent changes to greens and bunkers have been made to restore the course more in line with the original Harry Colt approach. The greens were replaced with pure bentgrass and are much better as a result.

At 7,284 yards, the course is not long by Tour Standards, but this is a tree-lined heathland course. Does that make accuracy more important than power? Not according to the event stats. Francesco Molinari may make the otherwise, but generally it does not hold. Note, though, that this is based on the event being held in May when the course is relatively soft. Therein lies the problem of predicting how a Spring event will be played out during Autumn.

With that proviso in mind, here are a few angles that should be profitable in this week’s event.

Angles to consider

1. The cream rises to the top at Wentworth

A common angle is that Wentworth tests all parts of the game. It is not clear how much this will be affected by the transition to an Autumn event, but players that are good in all aspects of the game also have good World Rankings. Francesco Molinari won last year when ranked 32^nd in the World Rankings (the Open Champion is now inside the top-10); Alexander Noren won in 2017 when ranked 16^th in the World; Chris Wood won in 2016 at 66/1, but was still 54^th in the World Rankings at the start of the week against a much weaker field; Byeong-Hun is the exception to the rule with his 100/1 win in 2015, but he would still end the year inside the top-30 in the World Rankings; and the next set of winners were Rory McIlroy (10^th in the World Rankings), Matteo Manassero (55^th), Luke Donald (2^nd) and Luke Donald again (2^nd).

2. Form matters at Wentworth

This is always difficult to judge in this event when it was held in May as the best players had just completed their early season stint on the PGA Tour and the European Tour had finally arrived in Europe only a few weeks beforehand. However, the winners all had displayed good form somewhere around the globe prior to the win at Wentworth. Molinari had been in the top-20 at The Masters, Noren had been in the top-20 at the Players Championship, Wood had been in the top-20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, An had been in the top-20 at the Open de Espana, McIlroy had finished in the top-10 in his last four PGA Tour events, Manassero had been in the top-20 in the Open de Espana and Donald had finished 6^th in the Players Championship. With the run of events very different at this time of the year, this angle is expected to be stronger this year.

3. Length off the tee does matter at Wentworth

McIlroy (2014) and An (2015) are evidence that big-hitters can win on this course, but the counter-argument is that those were in events held in Spring. The course conditions in Autumn are very different. For that, let’s look at the last six winners of the HSBC World Match Play Championship: Ernie Els (2007), Paul Casey (2006), Michael Campbell (2005), Ernie Els (2004), Ernie Els (2003), Ernie Els (2002). Admittedly, this was an invitation-only matchplay event, but all these players had much better driving distance ranks than driving accuracy at the time of their wins. The corresponding winners of the BMW PGA Championship in May were: Anders Hansen (2007), David Howell (2006), Angel Cabrera (2005), Scott Drummond (2004), Ignacio Garrido (2003), Anders Hansen (2002). Of these, only Cabrera was noted as a big hitter. The difference between the winners in Spring and the winners in Autumn is stark.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Jon Rahm

The World #6 has been in imperious form over the last three months with finishes of 3^rd-2^nd-1^st-11^th-7^th-3^rd-5^th-13^th since the U.S. Open. He doesn’t have any previous course history at Wentworth, but he is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour. He also has a fantastic record in European Tour events – since the 2017 DP World Tour Championship, he has won three and finished in the top-5 in seven of nine starts.

Tony Finau

Finau shares many of Rahm’s attributes outlined above. In his last five European Tour events, he has finished 18^th-27^th-9^th-10-3^rd even though four of them were Open Championships. He ranks 12^th in the World Rankings and is even longer off the tee than Rahm. His form may not be as strong as the Spaniard’s, but finishes of 4^th and 7^th in the last two Playoff events on the PGA Tour compare very well with this field.

Justin Harding

Harding is worth a speculative punt on this course and against this field. He has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the World Rankings over the last two years, starting last year outside the top-700 and now sitting in 53^rd position. That is due to four wins in 2018 – two on the Southern Africa Tour and two on the Asian PGA Tour – and then a progression to a win on the European Tour this year – the Qatar Masters in March. His game is based more around his short game than his long game, but he is certainly very competitive in this company as shown by his ranking of 12^th on the European Tour in scoring average.

Tips  1-2; -1.20pts

1.5pts e.w. Jon Rahm 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  2nd

1pt e.w. Tony Finau 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  51st

0.5pts e.w. Justin Harding 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc