|
The European Tour becomes truly European at this stage of the season. After almost seven months of travelling around four different continents, the European Tour stays in Europe (apart from the WGC event in Memphis) until November. The improvement in field quality this week is notable with this new phase of the season. The players compete at Golfclub Munchen Eichenried which staged this event every year between 1997 and 2011 but has been the host on alternate years thereafter with Golfclub Gut Larchenhof. Competing on a course every two years rather limits the trends that can be gleaned from the stats. Another complicating factor is that there has been changes to all 18 greens since the event was last played here in 2017. They will play faster and firmer (as all new greens tend to do) and they are much more undulating than the old greens. The remainder of the course is largely the same with a small increase in total yardage. It is generally a tree-lined course with water featuring on ten holes. But it is still not particularly tight nor particularly long and the list of previous winners here is dominated by neither long nor straight hitters off the tee. However, there are still a number of clear angles that can be found by looking at the course history, ignoring anything relating to the short game given the changes to the green. These are: Angles to consider 1. Greens in regulation is the key stat this week While the last winner, Andres Romero, wasn’t a member of the European Tour and so there are no stats available for him that week, second-placed Henrik Stenson led the field in greens in regulation in 2017. Stenson also finished 2nd in 2015 and was ranked 2nd in greens in regulation that week as well. In 2013, Ernie Els won the event and led the field in greens in regulation, while in 2011, Pablo Larrazabal won the event and ranked 2nd that week in greens in regulation (top-ranked Joost Luiten finished 3rd). Whatever the changes to the greens this week, shot-makers have always done well on this type of course. 2. History matters at Munchen Eichenried Players who win here do so after securing good finishes on this course previously. That is still the case even though the course is now used once every two years. Romero had secured top-30 finishes in both his previous starts here before winning in 2017. Pablo Larrazabal won in both 2011 and 2015, having finished 3rd here in 2010. Ernie Els won in 2013 having secured top-15 finishes in three of his previous four visits. 3. History matters also in Germany It is not particularly that courses in Germany are unique within the European Tour, but that the events in this country take place during the main summer phase of the Tour schedule. There is a consistency to the Tour at this stage and certain types of player play well at this time. This angle is so strong that you need to go back to John Daly in 2001 to find a winner here who hadn’t already finished 3rd or better in Germany beforehand. Six of the twelve players who have won on this course since John Daly had already won a European Tour title in Germany. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Lee Westwood Westwood is one of those former winners here (2003) who had already won in Germany: 1998 and 2000 Deutsche Bank – SAP Open. Those victories in Germany and on this course are a long time ago, but he has shown enough promise this year to suggest that he is still competitive at this level and he certainly evidenced that in November when he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Ranking 3rd in strokes gained – approach the green on the European Tour, he still has the ball control to be particularly competitive on this type of course. Thorbjorn Olesen The Dane has fared rather better at Gut Larchenhof in recent years having finished 2nd in each of the last two BMW International Opens played there. However, he has finished 29th and 34th in his last two visits here and was 3rd after the opening round in 2017. His form may not stellar, but he still ranks 24th in strokes gained – approach the green on the European Tour. The odds are good for a player who has the sixth best World Ranking in the field. Ross Fisher Fisher has finished inside the top-20 in each of his last five visits to Munchen Eichenried and in his last visit, he was ranked 1st in greens in regulation that week. He is still very strong in that department, ranking 1st in strokes gained – approach the green on the European Tour this season. He continues to be a player who records a disproportionately high number of 2nd place finishes (compared to wins) on the European Tour, but this course is clearly one that suits his game very well. David Lipsky The American secured a top-10 finish here last time around and has shown good form over the last six months. He won the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December and finished inside the top-5 in both the Trophee Hassan II and China Open. With that form this season, an improvement on his top-10 finish is a real possibility. Tips 0-4; -6.00pts 0.75pts e.w. Lee Westwood 40/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 10th 0.75pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen 40/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 10th 0.75pts e.w. Ross Fisher 33/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 26th 0.75pts e.w. David Lipsky 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
|
