Preview & Tips

There is no shortage of innovation on the European Tour. So far this year, we have had an event for both men and women and a ‘Super 6’ event. There is another event based on six-hole golf next week and this week is similar to the ‘Super 6’ event in Perth, but with the knockout stage played over nine holes.

This is a mixed strokeplay and strokeplay-knockout event. The first two rounds are standard strokeplay with the top-64 progressing to the knockout stage. The matches in this stage are played over nine holes, but rather than matchplay format, they are scored in strokeplay format with the player with the lowest score over the nine holes (and extra holes if necessary) progressing to the next round.

Unlike the WGC Match Play event, the seedings are not determined by World Rankings before the event, but by the leaderboard position over the two strokeplay rounds. That means that there shouldn’t be a significant aid to securing a high seed, but it is noteworthy that five of the top-6 last year after the knockout stages had been inside the top-8 in the strokeplay stage.

The course played is a composite of the North and South courses at Rinkven International Golf Club. There is a mixture of woodland and parkland holes and there is a need to be fairly accurate off the tee given that the course is only 6,924 yards in length. This is not a course that is suited to aggressive players or long-hitters, which is unusual for a ‘match play’ event, but the rough/trees are not so penal that only straight hitters fare well here.

There is only limited course form to draw upon – a Challenge Tour event in 2010 and this event last year – but there is enough to create a few angles that should be useful this week.

Angles to consider

1. The par-4s are key to scoring this week

At the Telenet Trophy in 2010, the first two on the leaderboard, Lee Slattery and Edouard Bubois, ranked 1^st and 2^nd in par-4 scoring that week. When Jorge Campillo led this event after the 36-hole strokeplay stage last year, he led the field in par-4 scoring.

The reason is clear: there are only two par-5s on the score and only three par-3s. That means that there are 13 par-4s which is more than the standard ten (to go with four par-3s and four par-5s). Power-hitters who can compile a low score by dominating the par-5s will not find this course to their liking.

2. Safety first is the approach this week

That focus on safety rather than power or aggressive play is summarised by last year’s winner: Adrian Otaegui. He ranked only 161^st in Eagles last year on the European Tour, but 3^rd in Bogeys (fewest per round).  Even though it was a pure strokeplay event in 2010, the same feature can be found in the Telenet Trophy: only one player had fewer bogeys than the winner, Lee Slattery, that week.

With the focus on merely making the cut for the first two days and not losing any more than a one-shot swing on any bad hole during the strokeplay knockout, the emphasis should be one who played the most consistent golf this week rather than the most exciting.

3. This format favours the younger players

In match play events, the ability to close out matches early can be important later in the event when fatigue becomes a factor. That is why the WGC Match Play final is rarely an exciting or high quality affair. With the strokeplay knockout format, the finalists will have completed a minimum of 90 holes (more if playoff holes were needed) by the end of the week. The course isn’t long, but that is physically and mentally demanding.

Seven of the eight quarter-finalists, and both the finalists, were aged 35 and under last year and that is expected to continue this year.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Tom Lewis

Lewis can count two wins and ten top-10 finishes in the last nine months. That form sees him as the top-ranked player in the World Rankings in this field. He finished 24^th in the WGC Match Play event two months ago against the best players in the world so this format should not present him with any worries. The course certainly suits him as he ranks 7^th in Bogeys (fewest per round) on the European Tour and he averages under-par on the par-4s on the European Tour this season, which is a strong achievement for the 28-year-old.

Matthias Schwab

Schwab has been in very good form recently, securing his third top-10 finish of the season last week in Denmark. It could have been much better – he led after 36 holes – but such weekend struggles will not be an issue this week. Like Lewis, he is averaging under-par in par-4 scoring on the European Tour and he also ranks inside the top-30 in Bogeys (fewest per round). The young Austrian (24 years old) lost out in the second round last year, but he is a much better player a year later.

Nacho Elvira

Elvira is another whose recent poor final rounds won’t be an issue this week. In the British Masters, he had been 14^th with one round to play, but shot 75 to finish 42^nd, and in the China Open, he had been 6^th with one round to play, but shot 74 to finish 32^nd. Still a young player (32 years old), the Spaniard has four wins on the Challenge Tour and two runners-up finishes on the European Tour already this season. A change in format and he is certainly capable of winning on this course which sets up nicely for him.

Chris Paisley

The course also sets up nicely for Paisley who ranks inside the top-20 in par-4 scoring on the European Tour this year. He ranked 36^th in that category last year, to show that it isn’t a fluke, and he ranked 2^nd in Bogeys (fewest per round) last year as well. A winner last year in the South African Open and in very good form, having finished 4^th last week in Denmark, the 33-year-old can match the form that he has produced in the Paul Lawrie Match Play and thrive in this knockout format as well as on this course.

Tips  0-4; -6.00pts

0.75pts e.w. Tom Lewis 33/1 (Boyle Sports, Sportingbet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

0.75pts e.w. Matthias Schwab 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  52nd

0.75pts e.w. Nacho Elvira 50/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  12th

0.75pts e.w. Chris Paisley 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports Sportingbet  1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  17th