Preview & Tips

It is strange to talk of the Open Championship as the final Major of the year, but it is a fitting climax. Better to save the oldest to last, though the impact of the PGA Tour schedule changes upon the European Tour extend beyond this week. While the top players will head to Memphis next week for a WGC event and then prepare for a shorted Playoff Series two weeks later, the European Tour will take a break for three weeks and return in earnest in September, October and November.

At least with three weeks of links golf, we will have seen far more imagination and shot-making skills than over the next five weeks on courses in the United States. Links golf really is unique and the Open Championship, which showcases Britain and Ireland’s best links courses, makes compelling viewing.

This week’s venue, Royal Portrush Golf Club, has hosted the Open just once previously, in 1951, when Max Faulkner was victorious. The Open has grown enormously since then and that has been the reason for the 68-year gap before returning here. Two holes were created from land belonging to the Valley Course at Royal Portrush and that gave the space for the Dunluce Course to host not just the tournament, but the vast, sprawling commercial side to the Open. Last year’s event at Carnoustie attracted 172,000 visitors.

Royal Portrush has the fewest number of bunkers of any course on the Open Rota (64), but in every other respect it is like other true links that have hosted this event: sand dunes, firm and undulating fairways, undulating greens with run-off areas and seaside weather. The weather is forecast to be calm with showers from Thursday onwards, which is not a penalty so long as the wind is calm.

The course did host the 2012 Irish Open, won by Jamie Donaldson, but there had been plenty of rain beforehand which softened up the course. A key feature that week was accuracy rather than distance off the tee and, more importantly, the short game was dominant that week. Donaldson ranked 5^th for scrambling, 1^st for putts per round and 1^st for putts per green in regulation that week.

With firm fairways and an Open Championship setup, this week’s winner will require a wider set of ball-striking skills. That is evident by looking at past winners of the Open as there is a strong consistency despite the course rotation. Some of the key angles from this tournament are outlined below.

Angles to consider

1. Look for a top-10 finish in this event

Let’s look beyond the 500-1 winner in 2004. In every year but one after Todd Hamilton’s incredible win, the winner of the Claret Jug had already secured a top-10 finish in this event. The only exception to this rule is Louis Oosthuizen who won the 2010 Open at St Andrews, having missed the cut three times beforehand. He would finish 2^nd at St Andrews again in 2015, but record no other top-15 finish on the other courses on the rotation, so this can be discounted, particularly as St Andrews is a rather unique course on the rotation. It is also notable that no-one else in these last 14 years has played in as few Opens (3) before winning, so Open experience as well as success is important.

2. Proven winners need only apply

The winner is every one of the last 15 years – and that includes Todd Hamilton in 2004 – had already won either a PGA or a European Tour event prior to winning this title. Of these, only Ernie Els (2012) hadn’t won at least one Tour event in either the same or the previous calendar year. For the Big Easy, though, he had a prolific winning record earlier in his career and he did reach a playoff on two occasions in 2012 before winning at Royal Lytham and St Annes. When the winner of this event is already a proven winner on Tour, they will also boast a high World Ranking. Five of the last six winners since Els were ranked inside the top-15 in the World Ranking and the sixth, Zach Johnson, was ranked 25^th at the time of the win.

3. Form is also important in the Open

Each of the last three winners in this event had won one of their last two starts before winning this event. That was also the case with Phil Mickelson who won the Scottish Open as well this event in back-to-back weeks in 2013. Of the two years between Mickelson in 2013 and Stenson in 2016, McIlroy had finished 14^th in his last event and had a win in his last five starts before winning the Open in 2014, while Zach Johnson had finished 6^th and 3^rd in his last two starts before winning in 2015.

4. Scrambling will be important this week

It was a key stat in 2012 and should be again this week given the run-off areas around the greens. These are links greens so they are undulating, so confidence and creativity will be needed and this typically the case in this event anyway. The last five winners have ranked 5^th, 5^th, 7^th, 2^nd and 4^th in scrambling that week. By contrast, those players have ranked 23^rd, 3^rd, 1^st, 40^th and 25^th in greens in regulation. The courses may be different, but a good short game around the greens in always necessary in the Open.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Paul Casey

Casey is a player in great form this year. Not only did he win the Valspar Championship in March, he has finished in the top-5 in 7 of his last 13 starts. That sees him inside the top-15 in the World Rankings. He has a top-3 finish in this event (2010) and spent time practising at the course last week while others were competing in Tour events.

Matt Kuchar

Almost the perfect fit for a Open Champion. Like Casey, he has lots of experience in the Open Championship and that has helped him improve his performances on links courses – he has finished inside the top-10 in each of the last two years. Again like Casey, he is a multiple winner on Tour, including the Players Championship and the WGC World Matchplay, and he has already won on the PGA Tour this year (Sony Open in Hawaii). Once more like Casey, he ranks inside the top-15 in the World Rankings and is in good form. The difference with the Englishman lies in his preparation for this event – he finished in the top-20 in the Scottish Open last week – and his superior short game – he ranks 8^th in Scrambling on the PGA Tour.

Bryson DeChambeau

After two very similar players, the next two are a little different. DeChambeau matches them in terms of class, ranking and wins. He has already won once this year – winning the Dubai Desert Classic by seven shots against a very strong field – and he won four times last year. That means that he now ranks 6^th in the World Rankings and, after some loss of form in Spring, he has looked very impressive recently, finishing 8^th and 2^nd in his last two events. He doesn’t have a great record in this event so far, but the Scientist should be able to work out how to best play this course if the weather is as calm as expected.

Webb Simpson

Further down the market is a player whose odds are based on his previous performances in this event. But this will now be his eight Open Championship and, like Kuchar, there is a definite trend of improvement as he learns links golf. His finishes in this event read 16^th-64^th-mc-40^th-39^th-37-12^th. He entered the final round last year in 6^th place and only four shots off the pace. He is a previous Major Champion (2012 U.S. Open), won the Players Championship last year, ranks inside the top-20 in the World Rankings and is in good form, finishing 16^th and 2^nd in his last starts. He has the best Scoring Average of this quartet in 2019 (ranked 4^th on the PGA Tour) and he has the best short game, ranking 2^nd in Scrambling on the PGA Tour.

Tips:  0-4; -6.00pts

0.75pts e.w. Paul Casey 55/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  57th

0.75pts e.w. Matt Kuchar 33/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  41st

0.75pts e.w. Bryson DeChambeau 40/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  mc

0.75pts e.w. Webb Simpson 70/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  30th