Preview & Tips

It’s time for the 2019 European Tour to start in earnest. After the globe-trotting first four months of the year, followed by a stop-start couple of months thereafter, the European Tour will now take place in Europe in each of the next eleven weeks in eleven different countries.

Sadly, it’s hardly a trumpet fanfare this week. The Race to Dubai Points on offer (2,000) is the joint-lowest for the season. Only the Belgian Knockout (played opposite the U.S. Open) has as few points for an event played in the Northern Hemisphere on this Tour. And the effect on the field is notable despite the lack of any European Tour golf for over a month for most players.

This is the sixth Czech Masters and they have all been played at the Albatross Golf Resort which has all the features of a resort course: a parkland course that contains generous fairways, trees that are comfortably away from the fairways and large greens.

That would suggest that big-hitters have an advantage here, but it is not really borne out by the stats. Thomas Pieters won here in 2015 and was top-ranked for driving distance that week, but the other four winners ranked 24^th, 40^th, 9^th and 41^st in driving distance that week. The issue is the par-fives. They are not particularly challenging and ranked as the four easiest holes last year, so they were not a significant factor in separating the field.

Another likely trend, given that the same course has been used for five years, is course history, but this has also proven to be unimportant here. Last year’s winner, Andrea Pavan, had previous finishes of 39^th-mc here. The 2017 winner, Hayden Porteous, had previous finishes of 60^th-mc here. The 2016 winner, Paul Peterson, had missed the cut in his one previous visit. And the 2015 winner, Thomas Pieters, had missed the cut in the inaugural event in 2014.

There are, however, a number of other angles that have helped to identify the winner in previous years.

Angles to consider

1. Look for players who play well when fresh from a break

Unless a player qualified for the Open Championship four weeks ago or played on the Challenge Tour or one of the minor Tours, he will be competing this week for the first time in over a month. A proven ability to be competitive after a break will be a major advantage this week. The Player Profiles here - https://www.tour-tips.com/Euro/players_list.asp - contain a ‘Plays well when fresh from a break’ measure. A positive reading for this category is indicative of a good performance this week.

2. Greens in regulation is one key stat this week

It may appear that greens in regulation stats are more appropriate for tough courses as they can be a proxy for good ball-striking skills. But good greens in regulation stats are the product of good driving ability (to make it easier to hit the green) as well as controlled iron-play. On a resort course, when scoring will be low, these are necessary skills to set up the birdie opportunities. With the exception of Pieters in 2015, the other four winners have ranked 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd and 6^th in greens in regulation that week. Pieters ranked 22^nd in that category in 2015, but Pelle Edberg (2^nd) ranked 1^st in greens in regulation, Matthew Fitzpatrick (3^rd) ranked 2^nd in greens in regulation, Robert Dinwiddie (4^th) ranked 4^th in greens in regulation, Renato Paratore (5^th) ranked 5^th in greens in regulation, and so on.

3. Putts per Green in Regulation is a second key stat this week

There will be lots of birdies this week and that is a viable angle – the five winners have ranked 1^st-1^st-2^nd-1^st-1^st in birdies that week. That is to be expected as a scoring stat when the winner has the lowest score, so it is more instructive to look at putts per green in regulation. Its usefulness lies in the fact that it can be a proxy for an attacking style of play. To have a good putts per green in regulation stat requires good iron-play as well as good putting ability, but it also requires the player to aim towards the pin to reduce the average length of putts. A safety-first player will play not have a particularly good record for this stat. Winners of this event all rank highly in this stat in the week that they won: 4^th-1^st-2^nd-2^nd-1^st.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Julian Suri

Suri is one of those players who is awarded the ‘Plays well when fresh from a break’ symbol on the Player Profiles page, having a lower scoring average (over the last five years) when playing on at least two weeks' rest than on both one week’s rest and when playing the previous week. Having not played since the Scottish Open, this is relevant. He also ranks 9^th in strokes gained tee-to-green on the European Tour this season and 16^th in putts per green in regulation. Together with a win in the Czech Rpublic on the Challenge Tour two years ago, he has the ideal fit for this event.

Matthias Schwab

Schwab is another who is awarded the ‘Plays well when fresh from a break’ symbol on the Player Profiles page. His greens in regulation stats are also strong for this field – 40^th in both strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained approach the green on the European Tour this season as well as 24^th in greens in regulation. His putting stats are not as strong, but he shot all four rounds under 70 on his debut here last year, finishing 9^th and leading the field in par-4 scoring. Course form hasn’t been useful here previously, but it is always difficult to totally discount.

Victor Dubuisson

Not surprisingly, Dubuisson is not awarded the ‘Plays well when fresh from a break’ symbol as some of his recent layoffs have been rather lengthy, but he is still a good tee-to-green player. He ranks 44^th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 27^th in strokes gained approach the green and 28^th in greens in regulation on the European Tour this season. Those are good ranks for this field. His form had been good prior to the links courses in July and the break in the Tour schedule, so he could contend again.

Tips  1-2; +0.60pts

1pt e.w. Julian Suri 33/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  mc

1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab 50/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  5th

1pt e.w. Victor Dubuisson 50/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  39th