|
For a national Open that was first staged over a century ago, it has had a rather unfortunate place on the Tour schedule. The last five Open de Espanas have been held the week after either The Masters or The Players Championship so it was hoped that the new October slot would produce a better field. This has not been the case. Whereas there were 15 players competing in the 2016 event who were ranked inside the top-100 in the World Rankings, this week there are only seven. The venue is the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid which last hosted the Open de Espana in 1996 and has since hosted the 2000 Turespana Masters, the Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005 and the 2008 Madrid Masters. There is plenty of course history, but nothing in the last decade. The course has been lengthened a little since the last event, but barely enough to offset the improvements in golf technology. The course played rather short in these events and that is likely to be the same. The course is well-watered during the summer months and that means that it will be rather soft. It is notable that while Padraig Harrington won the 1996 Open de Espana with a score of 272 in April of that year, all the other events above were played in October and scoring was much lower. Raphael Jacquelin won the 2005 Open de Madrid with a score of 261. The course is undulating and while the fairways are tree-lined, they are generous in width and the rough is not penal. Scoring would not have been so low in previous events here if the trees and rough had been real penalties. The greens are small, but given the general softness of the course, this will not be a test of chipping ability. Mindful that the course history is over a decade old, here are a couple of angles that should be profitable in this week’s event. Angles to consider 1. It will be a birdie-fest Rory McIlroy won’t be happy (or maybe he will as this will prove his misplaced point), but low-scoring is the norm around this course. Charl Schwartzel won in 2008 and led the field in eagles (he was 15-under-par for the par-5s) and still had a further 18 birdies that week, Raphael Jacquelin had 27 birdies when winning in 2005, while Richard Sterne had 21 birdies and two eagles in 2005, and so on. The ability to shoot low scores and be a streaky player will be key. It is not a matter of being a good putter as the tee-to-green game matters just as much to ensure that the birdie putts are short. This is borne out by the stats of previous winners – there is no real trend in terms of strong driving or greens in regulation or putting stats. 2. The par-4s are key to winning at the Club de Campo This is a very clear angle. The last five winners on this course have ranked 2nd-1st-1st-1st-1st in par-4 scoring that week. And it is more than just the eventual winners. In 2008, the top-3 in par-4 scoring occupied the top-3 positions on the leaderboard; the same also the case in 2005; the top-3 in this category were in the top-4 positions in 2004, and so on. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Jon Rahm Very short odds and even shorter than last year when he won at 4/1, but the field strength was higher last year, and he came into the event on the back of a top-5 finish in The Masters but no other top-10 finish since January. This year has seen the longest run of extremely good form in his career, notwithstanding last week’s missed cuts on links course, and he dominates the market, particularly as Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera Bello do not win often enough to warrant such short odds. Ranked 3rd on the PGA Tour for par-4 scoring and 6th for birdie average, he looks an extremely strong candidate to retain his title. I make Rahm to have a 30% chance of winning, so there is value at his odds. Adri Arnau Arnau’s ranks for par-4 scoring and birdies per round are much better than his overall scoring ranking on the European Tour, so these are positives and particularly against this field. His game is based around his tee-to-green play – ranked top-15 in strokes gained: tee to green and greens in regulation – and he also ranks 7th in greens under regulation, so he is an attacking player who will be suited to this course. It should be remembered that he was playing on the Alps Tour only two years ago and has now secured three runners-up finishes in his rookie season on the European Tour. It will only be a matter of time before he wins at this level. David Lipsky The speculative selection is Lipsky who has missed the cut in each of the last two weeks, but that was also the case prior to winning the Alfred Dunhill Championship at the start of this season. That was his second win on the European Tour and he has followed it up with a couple more top-5 finishes this season. For a player so inconsistent, his European Tour average stats should be viewed with caution, but his attacking play is notable from his top-30 ranking in both eagles and birdies per round. He is a streaky player and that should put him in contention at some point this week. Tips 2-1; +9.85pts 1.5pts e.w. Jon Rahm 10/3 (Sportingbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 1st 1pt e.w. Adri Arnau 28/1 (Coral, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th 0.5pts e.w. David Lipsky 100/1 (Coral, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 51st
|
