Preview & Tips

Until the event starts, all the news will be about Rory McIlroy who plays this week having won $15 million at the weekend following a brilliant display around East Lake Golf Club. He fully deserved to be the recognised as the leading player on the PGA Tour, having also led the Tour in Scoring Average this season. The format in last week’s event could have easily backfired, but it worked, this year at least.

So, will it be the Rory show this week as well? I think not. He has played in a European Tour event the week after a PGA Tour event just three times in the last decade. Given the amount of cross-Atlantic air miles he accumulates, he clearly avoids this scheduling issue and is only playing because he is sponsored by the tournament sponsors, Omega. Interestingly, one occasion was after win in the U.S. – the 2015 Wells Fargo Championship – and he missed the cut the following week in the BMW PGA Championship. And one occasion was after contending in a Major, similar to the pressure of last week – the 2014 U.S. Open – and he missed the cut the following week in the Irish Open.

That suggests that the focus should be on the rest of the field, whose odds are inflated by the 4/1 generally on offer for McIlroy. The focus will also be on the stunning vistas of the mountain range in which this event is held.

The venue is the Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club, situated at an altitude of one mile above sea level. At this altitude, the ball flies much further so this is a very short course at less than 7,000 yards in length. The driver will be rarely used, so there is little point in looking at driving distance or driving accuracy stats.

The most frequently-used adjective for this course is ‘quirky’, which, at this altitude, is not surprising. The fairways are average in width and are tree-lined, but they shouldn’t be a real penalty given the lack of drivers in use. Instead, ball control is needed because of the slopes on the fairway and the need to attack the flag from appropriate angles given that the greens are small, undulating and generally of the 'upturned-saucer' variety.

The European Masters has been played at this event since 1939 so there is plenty of course history to use, even though there were significant changes to the course in 1999 (by Seve Ballesteros) and in 2013.

Angles to consider

1. Quirky course equals course history important

Sometimes it is better not to ignore the most obvious and widely-cited angle. This is an unusual course, so those who master the altitude changes here are more able to do so year after year. Matthew Fitzpatrick is looking for the three-peat this year after winning in 2018 and 2017. In 2016, Alex Noren won after already winning here in 2009; in 2015, Danny Willett won after being 2^nd in 2012; in 2013, Thomas Bjorn won for the second time in three years. There have been outliers in 2014 (David Lipsky) and 2012 (Richie Ramsay), but they both entered this event in very good form, so there is a small caveat to this most famous angle.

2. The cream rises to the top on this mountain range

Again taking 2012 and 2014 as exceptions to the rule at Crans-sur-Sierre, it is noticeable that the winners this decade have been world class players who have all ranked in the top-75 in the World Rankings at the start of the week when they won here. Those rankings have been, in descending chronological order: Fitzpatrick (45^th), Fitzpatrick (47^th), Noren (39^th), Willett (32^nd), Bjorn (65^th), Bjorn (70^th), Jimenez (39^th).

3. A second-shot course

As mentioned earlier, the tee-shots should not be particularly important here unless spectacularly bad. This is a second-shot course and that is reflected in the greens in regulation stats at the top of the leaderboard each year. First and second on the leaderboard last year were also ranked first and second in greens in regulation. In 2017, Scott Hend ranked 1^st for greens in regulation and finished 2^nd. He would also finish 2^nd in 2016 and rank 2^nd in greens in regulation that week. 2015 was a repeat of 2018 when first and second on the leaderboard last year were also ranked first and second in greens in regulation. And in terms of the 'exception to the rule' years of 2012 and 2014, it is noteworthy that Ramsay won in 2012 and led the field in greens in regulation that week, while Lipsky won in 2014 and ranked 2^nd in greens in regulation. Not such an exception to the rule, after all.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Sergio Garcia

This event normally clashes with the Playoffs on the PGA Tour so Garcia has been an infrequent competitor in this event in recent years, but the schedule changes across the pond mean that he is back at a place he has had a lot of success. In his five previous visits, he has finished 19^th, 3^rd, 1^st (2005), 4^th, and in 2015, 6^th. He fits the World Ranking criterion with a ranking of 43^rd and is one of the best ball-strikers on the Tour, ranking 1^st on the European Tour for strokes gained – tee-to-green and 2^nd for strokes gained – approach the green.

Lee Westwood

Westwood is another former winner here (1999) and consistently plays well here, finishing 4^th and 12^th in the last three years. He ranks 56^th on the World Rankings and it was only last month that he came so close to winning his first Open Championship. His ball-striking skills were important that week at Royal Portrush and they will be this week. Ranking 7^th in strokes gained – approach the green and 14^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, he is still very competitive at this level and on courses that record second-shot specialists.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Lorenzo-Vera is another who fits the ‘course history’ model here – his five finishes read 14^th-19^th-12^th-30^th-3^rd. He played in the final group on Sunday the last year and had a share of the lead from the 1^st hole, but, needing to birdie the last hole, he found water and missed out on the playoff by two shots. He ranks inside the top-100 in the World Rankings and inside the top-40 in strokes gained – tee-to-green, so he is not too far away from the other two angles. He has already had a couple of runners-up finishes this year, so worth a punt on this course, in particular.

Tips: 1-2; +3.00pts

1pt e.w. Sergio Garcia 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  23rd

1pt e.w. Lee Westwood 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  28th

1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo-Vera 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  6th