Preview & Tips

What a curious event. It is to be expected that a European Open would be played in Germany as there hasn’t been any Tour event with ‘European’ in the title held in the UK since 2009. That looks unlikely to change in the near future given current politics. But is decidedly strange that it is a European Open that features some of America’s best golfers, but very few of Europe’s.

Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar all rank inside the top-20 in the World Rankings, while the field also boasts PGA Tour regulars Rory Sabbatini (75^th in the World Rankings) and Troy Merritt (106^th). Paul Casey is the only European in the top-40 in the World Rankings (17^th) and there is only Bernd Wiesberger and Lucas Bjerregaard as Europeans who rank higher than Sabbatini. An unusual boost for the European Tour following the change to the PGA Tour schedule.

Of these visiting Americans (and Sabbatini), only Reed has played in this event previously. He has played in each of the last two years, coinciding with the current venue being first used. This is a big, American-style parkland course with a maximum yardage of 7,836 yards. There are four teeing areas on each of the holes, so there is considerable scope for varying the length according to the players and the weather and it will play less than 7,600 yards for the third consecutive year.

It is still one of the longest courses on the European Tour and so driving distance is expected to be a factor, combined with the fact that there are five par-5 holes. Given that there are three par-5s in the last four holes, it should be a venue for high drama on Sunday.

That said, water features on every hole bar one to continue the American-style look to the course and that ensures that this is not simply a paradise for the big hitters. The greens are large and undulating and generally rather quick.

The venue has only been used for two European Opens, played in rather different weather conditions, two matchplay events on the Nordic Golf League (‘Master of the Monster’) and one strokeplay event on the Nordic Golf League (2016 Grundfos Masters), so there is very limited information on which to draw conclusions on the types of player to be successful at Green Eagle. The following are offered cautiously.

Angles to consider

1. All-round game is important at Green Eagle

Given the course yardage and the number of par-fives, it would be easy to say that this course favours long hitters. That was the case in 2017, but absolutely not last year when none of the top-10 ranked inside the top-35 for driving distance that week. What is clear is that the winner in each of the last two years has been highly-ranked across a wide range of scoring statistics. Take the standard metrics of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling and putts per GIR. Jordan Smith won in 2017 and ranked 3^rd-7^th-15^th-7^th-16^th across these metrics, respectively. Richard McEvoy won last year and ranked 62^nd-6^th-8^th-8^th-8^th across these metrics, respectively. Apart from last year’s driving distance issue, both winners ranked highly across all these metircs rather than any one in particular.

2. The winner will need lots of birdies this week

This is a course with four par-4s at 475 yards and above and they ranked as four of the top-5 hardest holes last year. The 13^th hole averaged over one-third of a shot over-par with as many double-bogeys as there were birdies. Everyone will drop shots around this course, so birdies need to be taken when there is opportunity. Both winners here have recorded 19 birdies and one eagle during their win, but were still only 13-under and 11-under-par, respectively,

3. The winner will need to play the par-5s well

With five par-5s, these holes will be key and combine well with angle #2. Last year’s winner, Richard McEvoy, was 12-under-par for the par-5s and over-par for the rest of the course. He ranked 1^st in par-5 scoring that week. The course was much wetter in 2017, unlike this year, but Jordan Smith was still 9-under-par for the par-5s, the 4^th best score on the par-5s that week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Andy Sullivan

Sullivan is making his course debut, though that is not a major issue given the lack of course history for most players, but he does fit the profile well. He is a very good all-round player, ranking 22^nd in strokes gained – tee-to-green, and he ranks 30^th in birdies and 19^th in eagles on the European Tour so he is clearly a player who can score well on birdieable holes. In terms of other relevant categories, he ranks 38^th in par-5 scoring and 18^th in greens under regulation on the European, so he also fits the third angle. A runner-up in the Irish Open in July, he can point to plenty of top-10 finishes in the last couple of years to suggest that he is close to the form that saw him win three times in 2015.

Sam Horsfield

Horsfield is another who records lots of birdies, ranking 10^th on the European Tour, and he also ranks 25^th in terms of eagles. Like Sullivan, his attacking play to birdieable, mostly par-5, holes is evidenced by good greens under regulation stats – he ranks 12^th in this category. And his attacking play is also evidenced his high ranking for putts per GIR (16^th) which requires good putting skills and attacking approach play to reduce the length of those putts. He has made good progress in only his second year on the European Tour, ranking inside the top-25 for scoring average, and is in very good form: he finished 3^rd in the Czech Masters and 10^th in the Scandinavian Invitation.

Jordan Smith

As the winner in 2017, Smith’s game clearly suits this course. Like Sullivan, it is his all-round, tee-to-green game that is his key attribute. He ranks 12^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green and 1^st in greens in regulation on the European Tour. Admittedly, his current form doesn’t look very good with four consecutive missed cuts, but two were on links courses and then he was playing after five weeks without Tour golf, so rustiness for most of the returning European Tour professionals was to be expected. If he can re-discover the form that he had prior to the ‘links swing’ – finishes of 7^th-14^th-5^th-6^th-mc-3^rd in six events – he will be a strong contender to win here again.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Andy Sullivan 50/1 (Marathonbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6)  36th

1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield 50/1 (Marathonbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6)  14th

1pt e.w. Jordan Smith 60/1 (Marathonbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6)  mc