Preview & Tips

The Open de France is another event to have been moved from its traditional midsummer slot. Normally, that has worked well for these events which have benefitted from better fields given the changes to the PGA Tour schedule. That is not the case for the oldest national Open on continental Europe. It has lost its Rolex Series status and with the next WGC event in China only two weeks away, the field is much weaker than in previous years. Last year’s event contained 12 players inside the top-50 in the World Rankings, this year there are none.

Le Golf National opened in 1990 as a stadium course that could support the Tour infrastructure for future events that Chantilly (the previous host to the Open de France) and St-Nom-la-Breteche (host to the Trophee Lancome) could not. It was built to be one of the best Tour courses in Europe and it has achieved that aim, hosting the 2018 Ryder Cup and set to be the venue for the 2024 Olympics Golf Tournament.

Anyone who watched the Americans at last year’s Ryder Cup knows that this is a course on which the driver should be used sparingly. The fairways are difficult to find and with the course length at 7,245 yards, it is clear that length off the tee is not a priority. That said, there are three particularly difficult par-4s – the 4^th, 17^th and 18^th – which all measure over 470 yards. There is always a note of caution when looking at the stats from events played in midsummer and extrapolating to an event played in October, but the Ryder Cup in the last week of September did confirm that, even though the course is softer at this time of the year, the purpose of the drive is overwhelmingly to find the fairway at Le Golf National.

Given that this course has hosted the Open de France in all but two years since 1991, there are plenty of stats and course history to draw upon so there should be few surprise angles even though the event has moved to Autumn. Here are three of particular note.

Angles to consider

1. Current Form is important for confidence

This is a daunting course with challenges from the tee to the green on almost hole. Avoiding bogeys will be very difficult so a player’s confidence in his game will be necessary as it will be sorely tested this week. The last two winners, Alex Noren (2018) and Tommy Fleetwood (2017), had finished in the top-25 in the U.S. Open two weeks previously, with Fleetwood following up his 4^th place finish with a 6^th place finish in BMW International Open. Thongchai Jaidee’s form prior to winning in 2016 was less convincing (38^th the previous week), but the other players in the top-3 – Francesco Molinari and Rory McIlroy were coming off top-10 finishes in their last PGA Tour events. The 2014 and 2015 winners, Graeme McDowell and Bernd Wiesberger, had just finished 2^nd and 6^th in the Irish Open prior to this event, while the 2013 winner, Graeme McDowell, had won the RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour within the last two months.

2. Greens in regulation is the key stat

Tipping previews tend to focus on this statistic. Given that eight of the last 14 winners have ranked 3^rd or better in greens in regulation that week, it is a fairly obvious angle. Even in years when this wasn’t met, such as last year, three of the top-4 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-5 for greens in regulation that week. The European Tour’s introduction of strokes gained stats last year enables a decomposition of the greens in regulation. In terms of strokes gained tee to green, the top-4 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-8 which confirms the importance of greens in regulation. They were ranked 8^th-5^th-25^th-10^th in strokes gained off the tee and 10^th-6^th-2^nd-15^th in strokes gained approach. This shows that Le Golf National cannot be described solely as a second shot course, the ability to drive well off the tee is almost as important in gained shots before the green.

3. Focus on putting not chipping for the scrambling stats

The second most-common angle in tipping previews for Le Golf National is to focus on scrambling. Jaidee won in 2016 and was ranked 2^nd for scrambling that week, Wiesberger won in 2015 when ranked 3^rd in this category while the top-5 in this category all finished in the top-6 on the leaderboard, a feat that was also recorded in 2013 when six of the top-7 on the leaderboard all ranked in the top-8 for scrambling and in 2012 when four of the top-6 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-6 for scrambling. The angle was little weaker last year with the top-4 all ranking inside the top-20 for scrambling, but it is notable that only one player in the top-10 on the leaderboard ranked outside the top-20 for scrambling. Last year's strokes gained stats enable a decomposition of the traditional scrambling stat, which is affected primarily by a player’s chipping and putting ability. The top-4 on last year’s leaderboard ranked 18^th-41^st-58^th-26^th for strokes gained putting and 40^th-33^rd-5^th-23^rd in strokes gained around the green. Within the scrambling stats, it is putting ability that has the stronger impact on this particular course.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Erik Van Rooyen

Van Rooyen is a player in great form. Since July, his finishes have been 14^th-20^th-5^th-1^st-12^th-14^th-mc-10^th, a run that includes a top-20 finish in the Open Championship and a win in the Scandinavian Invitation when he successfully defended a one-shot lead at the start of the final round. His confidence could not be higher. He ranks 41^st in greens in regulation on the European Tour over the whole season, which is good given the field quality this week, but it is on the greens where he excels. He ranks 7^th in strokes gained putting and 4^th in putts per GIR. With question marks over the form of the many of the leading players, he stands out at the top of the market.

Thomas Detry

Detry’s form is not as stellar, but he has seven top-25 finishes in his last 13 starts and he does rank 23^rd in scoring average on the European Tour, only two places behind Noren, three ahead of Schwab, eight ahead of Luiten and 13 ahead of Pieters who form the top-5 in the market with Van Rooyen. On that basis, he is worthy of a place at the top of the market and as a player who ranks 21^st in strokes gained approach and 27^th in greens in regulation on the European Tour, his game is suited to this course. Add in strong putting ability – 16^th in strokes gained putting – and is worthy of consideration this week.

Tips  1-1; -4.00pts

2pts e.w. Erik Van Rooyen 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Thomas Detry 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  8th