Preview & Tips

The European Tour’s ‘Links Swing’ starts this week with the best of the three courses on view. Next week’s Rennaisance Club is on a great piece of land between Muirfield and North Berwick, but the course is only 11 years old and the venue for the Open Championship, Royal Portrush Golf Club, is a very good links course, but not on a par with Lahinch Golf Club.

Dubbed the St Andrews of Ireland, this course has often been a practice course for Americans preparing for the Open Championship. Phil Mickelson is an Honorary Overseas Life Member.

It is a true links course with undulating fairways, sand dunes, blind shots, pot bunkers and undulating greens. Other than a view of the Atlantic Ocean, water should not be a feature this week.

Given that the Irish Open, like its British counterpart, is competed on a different course each year, there is no previous Tour event at Lahinch on which to base statistical analysis. But, as a true links course, there are plenty of other events across Britain and Ireland that share similar characteristics: the Open Championship, the Scottish Open, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. This event can be added to the list, but only the 2018 (Ballyliffin), 2017 (Portstewart), 2015 (Royal County Down), 2012 (Royal Portrush) and 2009 (County Louth) editions from the last ten years.

As is typical of links courses, the proximity to the sea makes weather an important consideration. Conditions are often changeable during the day and a firm breeze is the norm. The current forecast is for conditions to be very favourable. An analysis of the above events in weather-friendly years leads to the following angles.

Angles to consider

1. There is no substitute for experience on links course

Links golf is unique. The weather conditions, the fast, undulating fairways, blind shots, penal bunkers and undulating greens are unlike any other form of golf course, so a particular aptitude for this type of golf and experience of it are important. With the exception of Jon Rahm in 2017, five of the last six Irish Open champions had already finished inside the top-10 in this event.

2. Greens in regulation is the key stat when the weather is calm

When the weather is good, scoring on a links course is determined by the tee-to-green play. When the weather is bad, it is the ability to scramble that keeps a player’s score competitive on a link course. This week, it should be the former. The conditions were very good last year when Knox won and he led the field in greens in regulation, beating Ryan Fox in a playoff who ranked 3^rd in greens in regulation. Conditions were a little more challenging in 2017 when Rahm won – one day had average wind speeds above 20mph – but the top four on the leaderboard were also ranked in the top-4 for greens in regulation that week. In 2015 at Royal County Down, it rained on three of four days and the three players in the playoff – Soren Kjeldsen, Eddie Pepperell, and Bernd Wiesberger – ranked 18^th, 4^th and 37^th in greens in regulation, but 5^th, 2^nd and 22^nd, respectively, in scrambling. In 2012 at Royal Portrush, it rained on Friday and Saturday and the winds were strong over the weekend. Jamie Donaldson won the event ranking only 64^th (of 70) in green in regulation, but 5^th in scrambling and 1^st in putts per round.

3. PGA Tour players with European Tour experience fare well in this event

A small number of PGA Tour players regularly compete in either this event (since the Rory McIlroy Foundation supported this event in 2015) or the Scottish Open as preparation for the Open Championship and routinely fare well. Rory won the 2016 event with Knox 2^nd; Rahm won the 2017 event with Justin Rose 4^th; and Knox won the 2018 event with Rahm 4^th. The common thread here is that there is a drop down in class from the PGA Tour to this event and it matters, and that it is the PGA Tour players who have plenty of experience in Europe that make the successful transition from PGA to European Tour events. The Rory McIlroy Foundation closed down in December so there is a bigger drop in the field quality between the PGA Tour and this event this year, with even McIlroy skipping this event.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Hao-Tong Li

Li has been a European Tour regular since 2016, finishing each of the last three seasons inside the top-25 on the Race to Dubai. He has concentrated on the PGA Tour this season, but still ranks 10^th on the 2019 Race to Dubai standings so easily meets angle #3. He can also boast top-5 finishes in last year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale so deserves a shorter price to win his third European Tour title.

Russell Knox

Knox is another PGA Tour regular who has a strong record on links courses. He is in good form with finishes of 8^th, 27^th and 21^st in his last three starts in the U.S. and his links record is evidenced by his win around Ballyliffin last year and two top-10 finishes in the Scottish Open. He also completes the set by meeting angle #2 as well: he ranks 23^rd in strokes gained: approach the green, 30^th in greens in regulation and 3^rd in proximity to hole on the PGA Tour. He may have the pressure of being the defending champion, but he has the ideal game for this course with the conditions set to be fair.

Julian Suri

Suri is a European Tour regular who is backed again to play well this week. The American suffered a 3^rd round 75 to take him out of contention for a place finish last week, but still rebounded to finish 15^th. His last eight European Tour finishes read: 5^th, 23^rd, 20^th, 4^th, 2^nd, 19^th, mc, 15^th. He is clearly a player who is close to a breakthrough win and, ranking 8^th in strokes gained: tee-to-green on the European Tour, his game should be suited to this course and these conditions. He finished inside the top-30 in the Open Championship last year, so his links credentials are sufficient.

Ian Poulter

There is no need to test the Postman’s links credentials. He has finished in the top-5 in 14% of his 37 Open Championships, Scottish Opens and Alfred Dunhill Links Championships against much stronger fields. His form hasn’t been as good in the last month, but he was on a run of finishing in the top-25 in nine of his previous ten events, including his last three European Tour events in which he finished 6^th, 3^rd and 6^th earlier this year.

Tips:  0-4; -6.00pts

0.75pts e.w. Hao-Tong Li 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  15th

0.75pts e.w. Russell Knox 33/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  31st

0.75pts e.w. Julian Suri 50/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  mc

0.75pts e.w. Ian Poulter 33/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10)  41st