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The Italian Open has moved back to its traditional Autumn slot after a year following the BMW PGA Championship in May and it has been rewarded with a stellar field with 29 players inside the OWGR top-100. The event has a long tradition, dating back to 1925, but it was only with the doubling of prize money in 2016 and its integration into the Rolex Series the following year that Europe’s leading players have gravitated towards this event. The event has been rotated around a small number of courses and it has been 17 years since Ian Poulter won the last Italian Open to be staged at Olgiata GC. That was a weather-shortened event and, while Poulter is playing this week, it is too long ago to have any real relevance to this week. Another reason is that the course underwent a €1m renovation starting in 2010. The course was redesigned and length from 6,966 yards for the 2010 Roma Open to 7,097 yards for the 2011 Roma Open and to 7,566 yards for the 2014 EMC Golf Challenge Open. There have been no further renovations or lengthening of the course since 2014. That leaves only 2014 and 2015 editions of the EMC Golf Challenge Open that have been played on the same course setup as this week’s Italian Open. These are Challenge Tour events and so there are no playing stats collated, but they can provide indications of the type of player who should do well this week. In terms of general specifications, Olgiata is a classic parkland course for which a common comparison is Wentworth. We won’t know until the TV coverage begins, but that rather smacks of marketing spin following such an expensive renovation in a failed Olympic bid. From the evidence currently available, the trees are not as close to the fairways as Wentworth (or Valderrama) and while the fairways are quite narrow, there is a significant band of rough before the trees come into play. Otherwise, it is an undulating course in line with most quality parkland courses. Given the above, here are a couple of angles that should be profitable in this week’s event. Angles to consider 1. Consider only proven winners for Rolex Series events The Rolex Series has succeeded in attracting Europe’s best players to key Tour events. With the exception of Jon Rahm (2017 Irish Open), all 20 previous winners of the Rolex Series event had already won at least once on the European Tour previously. Rahm can easily be discounted as he was already ranked 11th in the World Rankings and had already won on the PGA Tour. Brandon Stone’s win in the 2018 Scottish Open is often seen as an outlier in these events, but it should be remembered that he had already won twice on the European Tour. With the schedule changes this year making it easier for Europe’s best players to compete in these events, it is also notable that all four winners this year were inside the top-100 in the World Rankings at the start of the week. 2. The driver and the putter will be the key clubs this week The winners of the two relevants at Olgiata, the 2014 and 2015 EMC Golf Challenge Opens, were Ricardo Gouveia and Matteo Delpodio respectively. Of these two, Gouveia is currently a European Tour member and so has stats available on the Tour site. As an indicator of the type of player that he currently is – and so a proxy of the type of game that was needed to win in 2014 – his current year stats can be analysed. As a benchmark, he ranks 157th in scoring average on the European Tour this season. He ranks much better in the driving stats – 45th in driving distance and 67th in driving accuracy; a little better in the approach stats – 96th in greens in regulation; worse in terms of his short game – 187th in scrambling; and much better in the putting stats - 75th in putts per green in regulation. Looking at Delpodio’s Tour stats when he was last a Tour member (2013) confirms the stronger emphasis on driving and putting ability. Given that the Challenge Tour does not provide stats for its events, this is one method to highlight the player strengths that were common across the past winners at Olgiata (since it was lengthened). Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Paul Casey Casey had a stellar season on the PGA Tour, finishing 8th in the FedEx Cup Regular Season and then 3rd in the Tour Championship. He has followed that with a win in the European Open and 11th in the BMW PGA Championship. He is playing as well and, more importantly, consistently well as at any point in his career. He was ranked 9th in strokes gained off the tee and 6th in strokes gained tee-to-green on the PGA Tour so he has the game to play very well on tree-lined parkland courses. His putting is only his only (relative) weakness against this course, but he has the form and the ability to more than compensate throughout the rest of his game. Danny Willett Willett will be attempting to win his 3rd Rolex Series event in the last 12 months, such is his renaissance after the downturn/burnout following his 2016 Masters triumph. He hasn’t played enough Tour events to feature in the European Tour stats rankings this year, but even when he was playing poorly last year, ranking 75th in scoring average, he ranked 20th in strokes gained off the tee. He has maintained that overall driving ability this year, but his putting has improved considerably. When he won he 2018 DP World Tour Championship, he ranked 1st for putts per GIR and when he won the BMW PGA Championship last month, he ranked 2nd in that category. Matt Wallace This week’s speculative tip is a much higher-ranked player given the Rolex Series angle above. Wallace is another proven winner at this level, winning three times last year. Given that he was playing on the Alps Tour only two years previously, it is understandable that he found that meteoric rise difficult to maintain. Nevertheless, he has still recorded five top-3 finishes this year despite being winless. He has struggled for consistency this year, despite those high finishes, and that has largely been the fault of his approach play. His driving and putting have generally been very good. That should be important this week and he is overdue converting one of his win opportunities. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1.5pts e.w. Paul Casey 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Danny Willett 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th 0.5pts e.w. Matt Wallace 28/1 (Marathon Bet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 7th
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