Preview & Tips

After two weeks in Australia, the European Tour returns to the Middle East for two events. The prize money may be much lower than the earlier events in this region and there may be an absence of marquee names, but this week’s course in particular is worth the wait.

Designed by Greg Norman and built along the shores of the Indian Ocean, this is a traditional seaside links course. The fairways are generous, but bunkers and waste areas provide significant penalties, and the greens are large – at an average of 820 square metres, they are 50% larger than the Tour average.

As with all good links courses, the main defence is the wind. The winds are expected to be gentle for the first couple of days, with only Saturday predicted to be rather unsettled in this respect.

The course had been used for five years on the Challenge Tour prior to last year’s inaugural Oman Open, so there is course history that can be used this week. The problem is that the Challenge Tour only record scorecard data in their events, so there is only one year to use for statistical analysis of the course. That doesn’t highlight very much, so there are more general angles to consider this week.

Angles to consider

1. Previous form in the Middle East

Despite the relatively low field quality in this event, seven of the top-8 on last year’s leaderboard had already recorded a top-10 finish in the Middle East (Tour events in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman). The only player not to meet this angle was Seungsu Han who was playing only his second event in this region.

This angle extends to the previous winners on this course on the Challenge Tour as well. The last three winners of the NBO Golf Classic Grand Final here had all recorded a top-10 finish in this region despite there being much fewer events played here on the Challenge Tour.

2. Class rises to the top

One test of a good course is the quality of the final leaderboard. There were five players last year who started the week inside the top-100 in the World Rankings: Alexander Levy (ranked 62^nd, finished 4^th); Shubhankar Sharma (ranked 71^st, missed the cut); Seungsu Han (ranked 88^th, finished 4^th); Joost Luiten (ranked 90^th; finishes 1^st); Fabrizio Zanotti (ranked 100^th, finished 7^th).

Sharma aside – and he has never fared well in this region with a best finish of only 29^th – the top-five in the World Rankings took up four of the top-7 places, including the winner. This course allows the best players to differentiate themselves.

3. Form is also important

A good course tests all aspects of the game and so form, and therefore confidence, needs to be strong. That has been the case in previous events here. Looking at the past winners: Luiten had finished 11^th in his last event; Sordet had finished 3^rd in his last event; Ritthammer had finished 6^th two weeks beforehand; Gouveia had finished 3^rd in his last event; Orrin had finished 19^th in his last event; and Kakko had finished 12^th in his last event.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Joost Luiten

It’s not easy to successfully defend a title and I wouldn’t normally back a player to do so, but Luiten is the stand out player in this field. He is the top-ranked player in the World Rankings, having competed in the WGC Mexico Championship where he finished 10^th. That was his third top-10 finish in four starts this year with both of his previous two top-10 finishes coming in events in the Middle East (3^rd in the Abu Dhabi Championship; 6^th in the Saudi International).

He can also count nine top-10 finishes in the Middle East, including his win here last year, plus he is proven winner on links courses as shown in his victories at Kennemer GC (seaside links) and The Dutch (inland links) in his home Open. Short odds, but a worthy favourite in this field.

Jordan Smith

Smith didn’t play particularly well in the Saudi International (though he did make the cut), but he has been in contention in each of the previous three European Tour events in this region: he was 3^rd with a round to play in the DP World Tour Championship in November; he was 11^th in the Abu Dhabi Championship in January and 9^th with a round to play in the Dubai Desert Classic in January.

That failure to convert his chances is also a feature of his previous appearances on this course. He was 5^th after the opening round of the 2016 NBO Golf Classic Grand Final before finishing 17^th and he was 6^th after the opening round of last year’s Oman Open before finishing 26^th. He can clearly play well in this region and at the level of the European Tour, but needs to do better when in contention.

That said, he has won on the European Tour (2017 European Open), finished 3^rd on the European Tour as recently as October (2018 British Masters) and he has won on the Challenge Tour in this region (2016 Ras Al Khamah Golf Challenge, United Arab Emirates) and well as in Egypt (2016 Egyptian Challenge). He is a young player who has already achieved a great deal so far.

Tips  0-2; -6.00pts

1.5pts e.w. Joost Luiten 11/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  12th

1.5pts e.w. Jordan Smith 33/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  12th