Preview & Tips

The final event of the Regular Season means that this is the last chance for many players to secure their Tour Card for next season, else it is the Q-School which even the Tour website describes as ‘arguably the toughest test in golf’. While many of the Tour’s finest will compete for over $10 million in prize money in China next week, this is about maintaining a career for many a player this week.

The Portugal Masters has always been a late season event since its inception in 2007 and between 2012 and 2016, as this year, it was the last event to be played in Europe. In the last two years, that final event of the Regular Season has been held at Valderrama which is a very tough test in most weeks and even more so when playing careers are on the line.

This year, that crucial event takes place once again on a resort-style course that will not overly challenge players’ games as well as their nerves. This was the site of the European Tour’s first 59 when Oliver Fisher reached that mark though he only finished 7^th. Low scoring will be the norm this week.

There has been some modifications to the course since last year’s event – a new strain of Bermuda grass for the rough, some re-positioning of bunkers and some strategically-placed trees on three holes to limit the degree to which players can cut the corner on dog-legs – but it is still largely the same course. The fairways are wide, the rough is not particularly penal and the greens are large.

With eleven years’ history at this venue, there are a number of angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider

1. This is not an event for outsiders

Admittedly, this depends on your definition of an ‘outsider’, but the prices of the winners since 2010 can be found here: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/portugal-masters-tips-2019/. Every one has been 100/1 or lower. Looking at the best odds on oddschecker.com and there are only 36 players who have a best price of 100/1 or lower for this event. That’s the top 30% of the market. And the reason why winners haven’t won this event at large odds is that, prior to winning, ever since the inception of this event in 2007 the winner shared at least one of the following two traits: (i) they measured against the OWGR, they were all inside the top-20 of those ranked in the field; (ii) they had achieved at least one top-15 finish in their last two starts. When a player has either form or quality, they tend not to be available at higher than 100/1.

2. Length off the tee helps around the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course

David Lynn is regularly cited as the last example of a long-hitter not winning this event (in 2013), but at the time of his win, he ranked only four places lower in the European Tour’s driving distance stats as he did in terms of driving accuracy. Alexander Levy (2014, ranked 13^th in driving distance on the European Tour at the time) and Lucas Bjerregaard (2017, 9^th) are the clearest examples of this angle, but Andy Sullivan is the only exception in the last five years to the rule that players were ranked higher in driving distance than driving accuracy on Tour, and he was still not a particularly short-hitter as he ranked 11^th in driving distance during the week of his win.  

3. The short game doesn’t matter around the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course

A somewhat anti-angle for this one. Since the winner typically ranks very highly for putting in this event (5^th-1^st-1^st-4^th-1^st-7^th-1^st for putts per GIR in the last seven years), it is commonly argued that the winner here will be a good putter. That is not necessarily so. However, it is true for all low-scoring events and that is the case here. But low-scoring can be a product of good putting, good approach plays or simply very true greens. Angles that are considered pre-event should corroborate the evidence post-event, both before and after those events and not solely focus on the stats during the tournament. Normally, that is sufficient, but there is a divergence in this event. Consider those last seven winners and their putts per GIR rankings outlined above. Prior to the tournament, they had the following ranking on the European Tour for putts per GIR: 173^rd-98^th-10^th-107^th-65^th-152^nd-34^th. Padraig Harrington (2016 winner) was clearly a very good putter and Shane Lowry (2012 winner) was a decent putter, but looking at Tom Lewis at 173^rd in the putting ranking last year would not have helped to identity him as a potential winner if putting ability was a key angle. The same can also be said for scrambling. Here are those seven winners' ranking on the European Tour at the start of their winning week: 110^th-209^th-41^st-92^nd-104^th-111^th-75^th.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Jordan Smith

Smith has already won a European Tour event – the 2017 European Open – and while some downturn in form is typical after such an impressive rookie season, he has returned to even better form this year, securing five top-15 finishes in six starts prior to the Links Swing in summer and returning to form with a top-5 finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month. He is long and straight off the tee, ranking 17^th in strokes gained off the tee, and that has set him up well to be ranked 1^st in greens in regulation on the European Tour. His putting stats aren’t great, but he hits lots of greens, gives himself plenty of birdie chances and that matters on these greens. He was 27^th on his debut last year and his game is at a higher level this year.

Ross Fisher

Fisher is another who has won previously on the European Tour – five times – and while this season has not been his best, he is still safe from any threat of Q-School. He has secured two top-25 finishes this month already and is another who has very good driving and approach stats, but would typically be overlooked for this event on the basis of his short game. He ranks 18^th in driving distance and 33^rd in strokes gained off the tee, and 21^st in greens in regulation and 24^th in strokes gained approach the green. Two weeks ago he led the field in greens in regulation at the Italian Open. In terms of his two top-25 finishes this month, it is notable that he ranked inside the top-10 for strokes gained putting in both events, which is a huge improvement in this area over the first half of the year.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

2pts e.w. Jordan Smith 25/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  31st

1pt e.w. Ross Fisher 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  49th