|
The European Tour makes its fourth and final visit to the Middle East until the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in November. With this being the fourth event in this region in the last six weeks that means that there is plenty of relevant form to draw upon as well as over 20 years’ of previous Qatar Masters. This event used to be sandwiched between the Abu Dhabi Championship and the Dubai Desert Classic and had weaker fields as the marquee names tended to play in the two events in the United Arab Emirates. That issue has only worsened with the event moved to March (last week in February last year). Recent winners, Branden Grace and Sergio Garcia, can’t play in this event while concentrating on the PGA Tour, so once again, it is a rather weak field on view this week. They will play at the Peter Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club which is typically described as favouring long-hitters as the rough is relatively sparse. However the stats don’t really support that view: looking at the top-5 finishers over the last 5 years, 17 players have ranked higher for driving distance than driving accuracy and 17 players have ranked higher for driving accuracy than driving distance. Of those who finished in the top-10, the respective figures are 25 and 28, and of those who finished in the top-20, the respective figures are 56 and 56. There is clearly no advantage to being either long or straight off the tee on this course. You need to look elsewhere to identify the likely winner this week. Angles to consider 1. Greens in regulation is the key stat on this course The greens are of average size and average speed for the European Tour, but finding them is key here. Of those who finished in the top-5 over the last 5 years, 22 players ranked higher for greens in regulation than their average rank across driving distance and driving accuracy. Just looking at winners alone, this holds true for 14 of the last 15 winners here, with the only exception being Sergio Garcia (2014). 2. Playing the previous week is more relevant than usual This is not a usual angle for a European Tour event, but the reasoning is clear. When this event was the middle leg after the Abu Dhabi Championship, it was important for players to have re-familiarised themselves with desert golf before taking advantage in this event. Since 2018, it has been paired with the Oman Open with this event being second. Given that these two events have much weaker fields than those in the United Arab Emirates, the re-familiarity angle holds again. This is a very strong angle with all 21 previous winners of this event having played the week prior to winning here. In fact, in each of the last five years, every single player who finished in the top-5 in the Qatar Masters had played the week beforehand, either the Abu Dhabi Championship or the Oman Open. 3. Winners of the Qatar Masters have strong links pedigrees Given that this is a flat, wind-swept course, the link to links-type courses is not surprising. Despite the relatively weak fields, there have been three winners of this event who have also won the Open Championship – Paul Lawrie (double-winner here), Ernie Els and Henrik Stenson. Add in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and winners of both these events include Branden Grace (double-winner here), Robert Karlsson and Paul Lawrie (again). The course is not a links course, but it is important to be able to play in a stiff breeze that typically blows across the holes rather than long the hole. That makes the link to links-type events relevant. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Victor Dubuisson In terms of the ‘Top Players’ database query for this event (click here), only one player in this week’s field has a better scoring average at Doha GC than Dubussion: George Coetzee, but his form is poor. Admittedly, it has been six years since the Frenchman played in this event, but his record here reads: played: 3, top-10-finishes: 3. Following his Ryder Cup success, he did try to play on the PGA Tour, but struggled to settle so far from home and has since that time had a number of niggling injuries (knee, sinuses) and generally became disillusioned with the game. However that changed when his eardrum exploded after missing the cut in his first event of 2018 and the surgery meant that he wouldn’t play again until November. The absence away from the game meant that he took time (mostly while fishing) to re-evaluate his golfing career, so he pledged to get himself fit once again in time for his return to the Tour and he has been playing with renewed love for the game. This year, he has played in the three events in the Middle East, finishing 38th, 18th and 12th (last week) and in the last couple of events, he has ranked 12th and 10th for greens in regulation (as well 1st in driving accuracy in the Saudi International). In good form already this year, he can also boast a very strong record in the Middle East: he has finished in the top-15 in 10 of 20 Tour events in this region. And he has a good record in links events: he has two top-5 finishes in his last four Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and has a top-10 finish in the Open Championship to his name. Tips: 0-1; -6.00pts 6pts Victor Dubuisson to finish in the top-five 7/1 (Ladbrokes and Coral) wd
|
