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A new event and a new country on the European Tour. This would normally be the case for fanfare when the 2018/19 European was announced, but not this time. The new schedule was released on 2nd October, less than four weeks after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, so a new event in Saudi Arabia was certainly downplayed at the time. However, with four of the top-five in the World Rankings playing, the top end of this field is the strongest non-Major or WGC event for years. Given that Tiger Woods turned down a reported £2.5 million to play in this event – the most that he has ever been offered to play in an event outside the U.S. – it is easy to be cynical as to the reasons behind so many of the top-5 playing this week. The course itself it short, just 7,010 yards in length, with plenty of undulation in the fairways, punishing bunkers and tiered greens. Next to the Red Sea, the links-feel is complete with sea winds a factor. The facility is managed by Troon Golf, the comparisons are obvious. Like all traditional links courses, though, in the absence of wind, they are relatively defenceless. The forecast is for light winds, peaking at no more than 10-15mph. Without the wind, as DeChambeau said in interview, “it's kind of like a bomber's paradise a little bit”. With a new course – it opened only nine months ago – and no previous Tour events in this country, the angles this week are limited and tentative. Angles to consider 1. Past success in the Middle East
An alternative may have been to look at past performances on links courses, but there can be little similarity between the climatic conditions facing the players this week and those in the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in July or the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in late September.
With the Dubai Desert Classic, Abu Dhabi Championship and Qatar Masters on the European Tour schedule for many years, plus the introduction of the Oman Open, there is plenty of history to draw upon with Tour events in this region.
As for links golf, it should be natural by definition. The Old Course at St Andrews lists ‘Mother Nature’ as one of the course architects. There is nothing natural about these courses in the Middle East.
2. Driving for show and for dough
With little wind, a very short yardage and tiered greens, this should be a low scoring event and one in which risk-taking should be rewarded. As DeChambeau’s quote highlights, the risk-taking will start from the tee, so long-hitters should have an advantage. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. However, the tipping strategy is rather cautious given the quality of the field and, more importantly, the lack of any course history. Dustin Johnson There’s always a fatigue factor following a win, particularly when leading from the 2nd round onwards, as was the case with both Rose and DeChambeau last week, so Johnson and Koepka looks stronger prospects this week. Both were criticised for not really contending in the Abu Dhabi Championship two weeks ago, taking the appearance money and then holidaying together in the Maldives last week. But Dustin did close with a final round 67 to finish 16th and he had finished 4th in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, so form is not an issue. He is also one of the longest-hitters on Tour and capable of shooting very low scores – his three wins on the PGA Tour last year were at scores of 24-under, 19-under and 23-under-par. With low scoring expected this week, his game looks ideal for this event. Lee Westwood The best-performing players in the Middle East events can be found using the ‘Top Players’ database query here. Westwood sits near the top of that list with top-5 finishes in over 20% of his starts in the Middle East and top-20 finishes in over 50% of those starts. He finished in the top-20 in each of the last two weeks in Abu Dhabi which confirms both his suitability to desert golf and his form. Given that he has never won in the Middle East – a runner-up three times – and that four of the top-five in the World are competing this week, a more cautious staking plan is advised when backing Westwood this week. Joost Luiten Luiten is another who features highly in the ‘Top Players’ database query for these Middle East events. He won the Oman Open last year prior to his wrist injury and, in his next event in the Middle East, he finished 3rd in Abu Dhabi Championship two weeks ago. He also has a very good links pedigree with finishes of 1st (2013) and 2nd (2007) in the KLM Open at Kennemer Golf Club and he won the KLM Open again in 2016 at inland links golf, the Dutch. He is certainly capable of winning, but better value appears to be in the place markets, especially after such a lengthy injury spell last year. Tips 2-1; +11.60pts 1pt e.w Dustin Johnson 8/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 1st 2pts Lee Westwood to finish in the top-20 6/4 (Paddy Power Power, Betfair Sportsbook) mc 2pts Joost Luiten to finish in the top-20 2/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) 6th
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