Preview & Tips

The Scandinavian Masters has lost its title sponsor and assumed an unusual name for a golf tournament, but it has retained the same amount of prize money as last year and Race to Dubai points are again on a par with the Open de Espana. And with Henrik Stenson and Alexander Noren leading the home contingent, it should be a good event.

The venue is Hills Golf and Sports Club and is one of the shortest courses that the players will compete on all year. Officially measuring 6,865 yards and 66 yards shorter than last year, this is a par-70 course that features plenty of trees and plenty of water. It is set in a forest, though some holes are more exposed than others. There are also plenty of elevation changes, though not on the same scale as next week’s mountainous venue.

The event has been played at a number of different venues in its 28-year-history, but the current venue has only been used one previously on the European Tour – last year’s Nordea Masters – and once on the Challenge Tour – the rain-shortened Dubliner Challenge in 2008. That will hold very little relevance to this week’s event, so there is only one year’s course history to draw upon.

It is rather tenuous to create angles from only one data point, but the following appear to be the most plausible.

Angles to consider

1. ‘Fairways and greens’ is the mantra this week

Last year’s event was won by Paul Waring in a playoff over Thomas Aiken, with Maximilian Kieffer finishing a shot behind. While driving distance was clearly not a factor on this short course – Aiken and Kieffer were in the bottom-10 for that category last year – accuracy certainly was: Aiken and Kieffer both ranked inside the top-5 for driving accuracy, while for greens in regulation, Kiefer was 1^st, Waring 4^th and Aiken 12^th.  With one data point, it is important not to over-play this, but ‘fairways and greens’ looks to be a sensible ploy on this short course.

2. Par-4s are key this week

With five par-3s on this course there is an argument that these will be the key holes and Waring did lead the par-3 scoring category last year, but Aiken was 48^th and Kieffer 62^nd. It is normally the par-5s that separate a field and, in this respect, Aiken was 1^st in this category last year (despite being the 3^rd-shortest hitter all week), but Waring was 53^rd and Kieffer 9^th in this category. Instead, all three scored particularly well on the par-4s – Waring 5^th, Aiken 3^rd and Kieffer 1^st, while Rock was 2^nd in this category and 6^th on the leaderboard. This is because there is a good mix of extremely tough par-4s – three averaged at least a quarter-shot over par during the week last year – as well as three very birdieable par-4s in the final seven holes, including the 267-yard par-4 12^th hole.

3. Look back to look ahead

Steve Rawlings, in his piece on the betting.betfair site, reports on the discussion that he held last year with Kerr Rowan, the former Hills Golf and Sports Club manager. The course comparison that Kerr made was with the Albatross Golf Resort, used for the last week’s Czech Masters. Last year’s Nordea Masters was played the week before the Czech Masters, but the link is clear from the top of the leaderboard. Of the top-5 in last year’s Czech Masters, Padraig Harrington and Gavin Green hadn’t played in the Nordea Masters, but the winner, Andrea Pavan, had finished 6^th on this course, joint-4^th-placed Lee Slattery had finished 10^th on this course, and joint-4^th-placed Scott Jamieson had been the 36-hole leader on this course.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Julian Suri

Suri had a poor 2^nd round last week to fall from 22^nd to missing the cut by a shot, but he had previously been 6^th with a round to play in 2017, so he does have good course form at the corresponding Albatross course. He was described as the perfect fit for last week’s event and that still holds this week. He ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained – tee-to-green on the European Tour as well as 30^th in par-4 scoring.

Jordan Smith

The same also holds for Smith. He ranks 1^st on the European Tour for greens in regulation, 22^nd in driving accuracy, 11^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, and 13^th in par-4 scoring. That is the perfect fit for this course and, while he has missed his last two cuts, those were on links courses and he is not fond of that format. Prior to those events, he had finished 7^th-14^th-5^th-6^th-mc-3^rd which shows both his form and his ability at this level.

Victor Dubuisson

Inside the top-15 after 36 holes last week, it could have been very different but for a 3^rd round 74. That said, he still meets the other criteria for success here. He ranks inside the top-25 for driving accuracy and par-4 scoring on the European Tour. Worth persevering with, particularly as his price drifts over last week.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Julian Suri 45/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Jordan Smith 45/1 (Coral, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Victor Dubuisson 60/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  wd