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It is the week before the Open so that must mean it’s the Scottish Open. It has held that slot since 1987 as the traditional warm-up event for so many players who need to (re-)acquaint themselves with links golf before playing in the oldest Major. For some reason, it was played at the parkland Loch Lomond course between 1996 and 2010, but this event has been held on links courses ever since and on a course rotation system since 2013. This week’s venue, The Rennaisance Club, is on a great piece of land between Muirfield and North Berwick, but the course is only 11 years old. And it was not until 2013 and a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers (based at Muirfield) that the Renaissance Club could boast that it had holes on the coastline. For the purist, and this should evident when comparing this course with last week’s Lahinch Golf Club and next week’s Royal Portrush Golf Club, this is a links-style golf course rather than a pure links. The course was originally designed with relatively wide fairways, but these were subsequently narrowed and, after a wet spring, the rough is forecast to rather penal. The other consideration with links-type golf is the weather. There is a yellow warning for thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon is also forecast to be wet, but thereafter is expected to be dry over the weekend. Winds are expected to be light over the week. Apart from a risk of bad weather adversely affecting the Thursday afternoon starters, it looks like another week without a typical links breeze to defend the course. The course has been used once on the European Senior Tour previously, but otherwise it will be a debut for a Tour event. The following angles are therefore based on general links courses and this event in particular. Angles to consider 1. Look for previous experience in this event Links golf is unique, so the standard angle would be to look at experience in links events. That can be done easily, but this is a more focused approach on this event. Every winner since the event moved to a links course (2011) had previously competed in this event. Even last year’s 400/1 winner, Brandon Stone, had competed the previous year at Dundonald Links. 2017’s winner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, had competed in eight previous Scottish Opens, while the six previous winners of this event back to 2011 had all achieved at least one top-10 finish in this event. Links experience is important, but so is links experience in this particular event. 2. Look for players who competed last week For the last two years, the Irish Open, Scottish Open and the Open Championship have formed a three-week ‘Links Swing’ on the European Tour. And those who finish in the places in the second week have already competed in the first week. Last year, four of the top-5 including the winner had competed in the Irish Open, while in 2017, it was seven of the top-8 including the winner who had competed in the Irish Open. It is notable that few actually performed really well in the Irish Open – only Ryan Fox in 2017 carried forward a top-15 finish to a place finish in the Scottish Open – so it is merely important to have competed last week. 3. PGA Tour players fare well in this event Last year was very much the exception to most rules with the 400/1 winner (1000 on Betfair pre-tournament), but PGA Tour regulars Luke List finished 3rd and Rickie Fowler 6th. In 2017, Cabrera-Bello won after concentrating on the PGA Tour until the U.S. Open. That was also the case with Justin Rose in 2014 and the 2013 and 2015 editions were won by Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler, respectively. In the missing year, 2016, the event was won by Jeev Milkha Singh, but Danny Lee finished 3rd and four PGA Tour regulars finished in the top-10. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Hao-Tong Li Li struggled on the easier back nine last week so constantly threatened to get into contention, but ultimately finished 15th. With three previous appearances in this event – a top-25 finish last year – and a top-5 finish in the 2017 Open Championship, his links credentials are strong enough and he is making the step down from the PGA Tour to this field quality. He had the perfect game for last week’s event and didn’t make the most of his opportunities. This week should be different. Kevin Kisner Kisner doesn’t fit either angle #1 or #2, but those are refined angles about the suitability of the player to links golf. For evidence of that look only to last year’s Open Championship at Carnoustie. He led the event for three rounds and, even though he dropped three shots in the first three holes on Sunday, he still finished 2nd behind Molinari. This year he was hugely impressive when winning the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and could easily continue the trend of PGA Tour players playing very well in this event. Tyrrell Hatton Hatton is a proven links player, having won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2016 and 2017, but he can also boast some very strong performances in the Scottish Open, having finished 4th in 2014, 2nd in 2016 and 9th last year. He missed the cut last week, but that hasn’t been a problem in this event over the last two years, and he has been concentrating on the PGA Tour until now. A second week on links courses should see him back to his competitive best. Matthew Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick is another who has concentrated on the PGA Tour so far this year, culminating in a 12th place finish in the U.S. Open four weeks ago. He followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the BMW International Open so his form is good. He didn’t play last week and his links form is patchy, but he was 2nd with one round to play in this event last year, finishing 14th, and he did finish 8th at Royal County Down in the Irish Open. That is enough to suggest that he could contend around this links-style course if he maintains his strong form this week. Tips 0-4; -6.00pts 0.75pts e.w. Hao-Tong Li 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.75pts e.w. Kevin Kisner 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.75pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton 33/1 (BetFred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 14th 0.75pts e.w. Matthew Fitzpatrick 28/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sportd 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 14th
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