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The European Tour season closes with three Rolex Series events, in Turkey, South Africa and the UAE. The season will end just as it started, with plenty of travelling. These three Rolex Series events have replaced the Final Series events and, as a set, the Rolex Series has proved to be a success. Despite being held the week after a WGC event in China, another strong field has been assembled. The Turkish Airlines Open was first staged six years ago at this week’s event, but then moved to Carya Golf and Spa Resort in 2016 where it stayed for three years. That means that the course form is a little dated, but at least there is three years of data and with a decent field on each occasion. The Montgomerie Maxx Royal is unusual in that it has five par-3s and five par-5s, but it is otherwise a resort-style course set up for golfing tourists. The winning scores were 24-, 17- and 22-under-par across the three years here. The fairways are average in width and tree-lined and there is water on eight of the holes, but this is not a course that is penal off the tee so the emphasis will be upon approach shots and birdies in this low-scoring event. Those three years of this being event being held here is sufficient to provide angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Consider only proven winners for Rolex Series events The Rolex Series has succeeded in attracting Europe’s best players to key Tour events. With the exception of Jon Rahm (2017 Irish Open), all 20 previous winners of the Rolex Series event had already won at least once on the European Tour previously. Rahm can easily be discounted as he was already ranked 11th in the World Rankings and had already won on the PGA Tour. Brandon Stone’s win in the 2018 Scottish Open is often seen as an outlier in these events, but it should be remembered that he had already won twice on the European Tour. With the schedule changes this year making it easier for Europe’s best players to compete in these events, it is also notable that all five winners this year were inside the top-100 in the World Rankings at the start of the week. 2. Approach play will be another factor this week This can’t be taken in isolation from the first angle as good players tend to have better all-round games, but it has been a factor on this course as opposed to Rolex events. The top-10 on the leaderboard on this course has always featured players highly ranked in greens in regulation and that has not been the case for all three years for any of the other tee-to-green stat categories. 3. Good putting is the final piece of the jigsaw It is common to read that the par-5s are the key to scoring at the Montgomerie Maxx Royal and that is reflected in the higher number of par-5s than usual. However, in each of the three years that this course has been used, the par-5s have ranked the five easiest holes on the course. They are all virtually the same length, ranging from 558 to 576 yards, and so do not separate out the field if they are so easy for everyone. The top-ranked and 3rd-ranked players in putts per GIR finished inside the top-3 in 2013, the wet conditions disrupted this in 2014 (and can be ignored as dry conditions will prevail this week) and the top-4 in 2014 were all ranked inside the top-6 in putts per GIR. There will be lots of birdies this week – all three winners ranked 1st in birdies that week – and that means good approach play and good putting is needed. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Shane Lowry Lowry is 3rd in the Race to Dubai with only Wiesberger, of the two players ahead of him, competing this week. He fits the profile very well for this event having won the Open Championship earlier this year – his fifth European Tour win – and he also won the first Rolex Series event of 2019 in Abu Dhabi. With a ranking of 6th in strokes gained: approach the green, 7th in putts per GIR and 11th in birdies per round, he is clearly having a stellar season over and above his two wins and looks to be the ideal player for this course, on which he has already secured a top-10 finish. Tyrrell Hatton Hatton is the only player of this triumvirate to rank outside the top-20 in the World Rankings, but he is still inside the top-50. With three European Tour wins, he clearly meets the first criterion for this event. In terms of the others, he leads the Tour in strokes gained: approach the green and is 12th in putts per GIR. He has finished 19th and 26th in his two previous visits to this course and is a much better player than in 2015 and should go much closer. Francesco Molinari Molinari has two top-25 finishes in his two previous starts in this event and while he isn’t generally acknowledged as one of the best putters on Tour, he is a proven winner, ranking 12th in the World Rankings, a winner of six European Tour events and a Major champion. His form isn’t at its best, but the odds more than compensate given his class. Tips 1-2; +15.20pts 1pts e.w. Shane Lowry 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 62nd 1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 1st 1pt e.w. Francesco Molinari 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 44th
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