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It is only the second event of the year on the European Tour and it is already a Rolex Series event. With a purse twice that of next week’s Dubai Desert Classic and surpassed only by the Majors and WGC events until mid-November, this is a big event that has again attracted some big-name players. As last year, this is the first event in the first of the two ‘Desert Swings’ on the European Tour. Expect plenty of well-known players to compete in this first Desert Swing before the Tour moves onto Australia This event has been played at the same venue since the inaugural event in 2006, won by Chris DiMarco, so that means that there is plenty of course form available this week. The course is long, measuring 7,583 yards, but is flat and exposed. There have been changes to the course over the years, most significantly in 2012 to add bunkers in key landing areas and to tighten the fairways, which has made accuracy more important than length off the tee, but driving stats are not key around this course. Last year’s winner, Shane Lowry, ranked 30th in driving distance and 55th in driving accuracy, while 2nd-placed Richard Sterne ranked 38th in driving distance and 21st in driving accuracy. The greens are amongst the best on the European Tour as well as amongst the fastest. There is grain within the Bermuda Tifdwarf strain, but good putters are rewarded on these greens and the winning scores suggest that this a course for low-scoring and plenty of birdies. Given the long history at this course, the following angles are easy to identify and should be profitable. Angles to consider: 1. Previous form in desert golf More than half of the 13 Abu Dhabi Championships have been won by just three players: Tommy Fleetwood (2); Paul Casey (2); Martin Kaymer (3). And it really should have been a fourth win for Kaymer in 2015 – he held a ten shot lead with 13 holes to play! But this angle extends to more than course history at Abu Dhabi. The winners had all previously played well in this region. In terms of the top-8 on last year’s leaderboard, only Paul Waring, hadn’t previously secured a 1st or 2nd place finish in the UAE, Qatar or Oman on the European Tour 2. Previous form before the event Played in the first couple of weeks of the year, this can hardly be called ‘current form’, but there is evidence that a high finish at the end of the previous year carries over to the new year. In each of the last five years, the winner had finished inside the top-10 in their previous start, including non-Tour events such as the Hero World Challenge. 3. Greens in regulation is key this week Since the inception of this event, the leader in greens in regulation has finished 3rd-1st-1st-3rd-2nd-2nd-3rd-1st-2nd-5th-9th-2nd-2nd. That’s a pretty consistent reward for finding the greens here. Even if last year’s winner seems to defy this greens in regulation angle, he ranked 3rd in strokes gained: approach to complement his very strong putting performance. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Bryson DeChambeau DeChambeau didn’t play in this event last year, having missed the cut in 2018, but it should remembered that he was the first round leader in his previous visit here (2016) and was second heading into the weekend. He did play in the Dubai Desert Classic last year which he won by seven shots, which shows that he can dominate these fields in desert golf. He showed good form at the end of last year and as one of the best, albeit slowest, putters on the PGA Tour, he will find these greens very well suited to his game. Mike Lorenzo-Vera Lorenzo-Vera is another with very good form in this region, particularly last year when he finished 2nd in the Qatar Masters and 3rd in the DP World Tour Championship. He didn’t manage to hold onto victory having led for three rounds in the latter event and that remain a concern, but last year was an extremely good year for him, he finished it in very good form and he was in 2nd place on this course after the opening round last year. Matthew Fitzpatrick As a six-time winner on the European Tour, there are no question marks over Fitzpatrick’s ability to win at this level. One of those wins came in the UAE – the 2016 DP World Tour Championship – and he can also point to a top-3 finish in his last appearance in this event (2018). Very strong from tee-to-green (12th in last year’s greens in regulation stats) and even better on the green (1st in strokes gained: putting and 2nd in putts per green in regulation last year), he should find this course still suits his game very well Tips 1-2; -1.00pts 1pts e.w. Bryson DeChambeau 22/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo-Vera 55/1 (BedFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 34th 1pt e.w. Matthew Fitzpatrick 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 2nd
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