Preview & Tips

After six weeks in England and Wales, the European Tour switches to the Iberian Peninsula for three weeks before returning to the UK for a four-week stint. The travel arrangements have resulted in a field that is quite different to previous weeks with a few withdrawals and additions over the last couple of days.

There is a lack of top-ranking Spaniards in the field, which shows the difficulty of travelling at the moment. This week’s venue is normally a showcase for Sergio Garcia’s many skills. He has won three of the last four Andalucía Masters and has finished outside the top-10 just once in 15 tournaments played at Valderrama, but he is not present this week. Nor is Jon Rahm or Rafa Cabrera Bello, ranked 2^nd and 68^th respectively in the World Rankings. Both are near ever-presents in European Tour events in Spain. The top-ranking Spaniard is Jorge Campillo, number 105 in the World Rankings.

Those that have travelled to Valderrama play on a course that has a long history on the Europen Tour, as well as staging the 1997 Ryder Cup. It staged the season-ending Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008, while also staging the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000. After staging the Andalucía Masters in 2010 and 2011, Valderrama disappeared from the European Tour schedule for a number of years before returning in 2016 for the Open de Espana and the re-convened Andalucía Masters from 2017 onwards. That means that there is plenty of history, albeit only four events in the last eight years.

The course is tough. The fairways are narrow, sloped and lined with cork trees, while the greens are smaller than average for the European Tour, but are fast and undulating. Despite the famous 17th hole, water only features on three holes at Valderrama.

Unlike the most Ryder Cup venues, Valderrama is clearly not a course for either the bombers or the more aggressive players on Tour. It is often described as a quirky course, which is normally combined with an insistence that course form is essential here, typically citing Garcia. But two of the last nine winners have won on their debut at Valderrama – Jeev Milkha Singh (2006 Volvo Masters), Andrew Johnson (2016 Open de Espana) – so it is not so clear cut. There is sufficient course history to identify other angles to identify players who should contend.

Angles to consider:

1. Form continues to be important since the re-start

This has been a regular feature since the Tour re-start and with strong reasons. With the exception of Romain Langasque’s win in the Wales Open, all winners since the Tour re-start at the Austrian Open had secured a top-15 finish within the previous two starts. Last week, Rasmus Hojgaard won after not playing the previous two weeks, but he had finished 2^nd, 6^th and 3^rd in the three weeks beforehand. Form is still important. Add in the fact that the four winners at Valderrama since 2016 had finished 15^th, 30^th, 7^th, and 3^rd in last previous start, and it is clear that form is important on this course in more normal times.

2. Greens in regulation is the key stat at Valderrama

Good ball-striking skills and good course management are key to securing a strong greens in regulation stat and those are very important at Valderrama. Christiaan Bezuidenhout has a career week on the greens to win last year and defy this angle, but all five previous winners of the four Andalucía Masters and the 2016 Open de Espana had ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation that week (top-ranked in two of five cases).

3. The par-fours where events are won (and lost) at Valderrama

For all the drama of the 17th hole, a par-five, it is the ability of the players to manage the winding corridors between the cork trees that determines success on this course. An inability to do so can lead to high scores, so course management on these holes is important. There have been six events at Valderrama in the last ten years and the winners here have ranked 2^nd-1^st-1^st-3^rd-1^st-1^st  in par-four scoring that week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Craig Howie

Howie gets into this event on the back of his 5^th place finish in The Belfry last week. Despite his limited status on the European Tour, he has managed to play in four events since the restart and finished 4^th-mc-21^st-5^th. It is no surprise to see him travel this week. He ranked 4^th in greens in regulation last week (8^th in driving accuracy) and 2^nd in greens in regulation the previous week at Celtic Manor, so his game is clearly suited to Valderrama.

Joel Stalter

Stalter has rested for the last three weeks after he finished 15^th in the Austrian Open, won the Euram Bank Open and finished 28^th in the Hero Open. That secured his playing rights on this Tour. Given the nature of this field, it is rare to find someone who has won a European Tour event; plus he has also won on the Challenge Tour as well. In terms of course fit, he ranks 3^rd behind Tommy Fleetwood and Victor Perez in Par-4 Scoring on the European Tour this year (see https://www.tour-tips.com/Euro/TourStatsDetail.aspx?table_code=26&table_desc=Par-4%20Performance&table_usercontrol=Par4Performance.ascx). It is no statistical fluke as he ranks 4^th in Scoring Average on the European Tour this year as well (see the Tour Stats table for this). He may not feature in the official European Tour rankings on europeantour.com, but the Tour Stats tables on this site show that his European Tour form in 2020 is worthy of shorter odds.

Just two selections for now. Will check again tomorrow to see any prices have moved sufficiently to create value on other shortlisted players.

Tips  0-2; -4.00pts

1pt e.w. Craig Howie  150/1 (888sports, Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  31st

1pt e.w. Joel Stalter  200/1 (888sports, Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  mc